903
FXUS63 KSGF 210844
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
244 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS IN THE -10 TO 0
DEGREE RANGE THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL RECORD LOWS BROKEN.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL SUPPORT MELTING OF THE EXISTING SNOWPACK. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE AREA. ONE WAS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/IOWA BORDER AND THE
OTHER, STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACROSS COLORADO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS MOVING OVER MISSOURI WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. HIGH CLOUDS
WERE STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST AND WERE CAUSING TEMPS TO BOUNCE
AROUND. LOW SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ARE BEING OBSERVED WHERE
CLEARING IS STILL OCCURING ACROSS AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 WITH
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILLS OF 0 TO -10 F
WERE ALSO BEING OBSERVED. SEVERAL RECORD LOWS HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED FOR TODAY AND SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE VALUES.
TODAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE DAY WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL COME AND GO AT TIMES TODAY. THE HIGH CLOUDS,
850MB TEMPS STILL AROUND -8C AND SNOWPACK WILL ALL ACT TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. COOLEST READINGS LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CWA WHERE CLOUDS WILL LAST LONGER. WHILE LIFT DOES
INCREASE FROM THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BETWEEN 750-900MB WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT
ANY PRECIP. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
THE HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR WHERE ENOUGH FORCING COULD CAUSE A FEW
FLURRIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CHANCE IS LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT EXPERIENCE THEM.
TONIGHT: WHILE THE AREA WILL SEE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS, EXISTING
SNOW PACK WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND
HAVE TRENDED DOWN WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10
DEGREES. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION/STRONGER SURFACE WINDS
OVER THE SNOWPACK SHOULD KEEP FOG POTENTIAL LOW AND MOST
GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEVELOP FOG.
SATURDAY: WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FINALLY ADVECT
SOME WARMER 850MB TEMPS INTO THE AREA (-2 TO 2C). WITH THE SUNNY
SKIES, TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY BREAK FREEZING, HOWEVER DID TEMPER
HIGHS DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S FOR MOST AREAS GIVEN THE EXISTING
SNOW DEPTH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. MEAN 850MB TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE 4-6C RANGE SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE 10-12C RANGE
MONDAY. THIS WARMER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO PUSH 50
DEGREES ON SUNDAY AND THEN NEAR 60 DEGREES FOR MONDAY GIVEN
LATEST NBM DATA. VERY SMALL SPREADS IN THE NBM DATA SUGGEST HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS WARMING TREND. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO LOOK TO
INCREASE ABOVE FREEZING BEGINNING MONDAY THEREFORE SIGNIFICANT
MELTING SHOULD OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME FOG POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE WINDS
OVER THE MELTING SNOWPACK HOWEVER LATEST NBM DATA KEEPS MEAN
VISIBILITIES ABOVE 6 MILES.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTHEAST TUESDAY
WITH A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE QUICK TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WHILE
THERE APPEARS TO BE SLIGHT TIMING ISSUES, ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE
BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PASS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA WITH A FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA. LATEST NBM AND LREF
PRECIP CHANCES ARE AT 20-30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
NORTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD. MOISTURE MAY ALSO BE A LIMITING FACTOR
WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN ITS PROGRESSIVE NATURE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SWITCH FROM A NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY HOWEVER SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT (LESS THAN
10KTS).
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE 48-53
DEGREE RANGE. NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
IN THE 28-32 DEGREE RANGE.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 21:
KSGF: 0/1978
KJLN: 9/1963
KVIH: 2/1963
KUNO: 2/1963
FEBRUARY 22:
KJLN: 7/1963
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
CLIMATE...CAMDEN
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