167  
FXUS63 KSGF 212127  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
327 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- LOW (<15%) CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES NORTH OF A PITTSBURG  
KS TO LAKE OF THE OZARKS LINE. NO IMPACTS WILL OCCUR.  
 
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGH  
CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS  
WILL SUPPORT MELTING OF THE EXISTING SNOWPACK. DRIER WEATHER  
EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 132 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025  
 
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF  
THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS, WHILE A BROAD RIDGE IN THE  
LOW-LEVELS EXTENDS FROM THE GULF INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE  
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS NEAR THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.  
ON RADAR, FLURRIES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE STREAKED ACROSS  
NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE  
DRY CONVEYOR BELT OF THE CYCLONE.  
 
THERE IS A LOW (5-14%) CHANCE OF FLURRIES NORTH OF A PITTSBURG  
KS TO LAKE OF THE OZARKS LINE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING  
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY ONLY  
SEE FLURRIES IF A SNOW SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS UPSTREAM IN A BETTER  
ENVIRONMENT IS ABLE TO SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT INTO OUR  
AREA. CONDITIONS FURTHER EAST INTO MISSOURI ARE LESS FAVORABLE  
FOR ANY TYPE OF PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE  
BECAUSE OF A SIGNIFICANT LACK OF MOISTURE.  
 
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH, THE AIR IS INCREDIBLY DRY,  
WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS VERIFYING BELOW THE NBM 10TH  
PERCENTILE. ON THE 12Z SOUNDING, SGF MEASURED A PW OF 0.14",  
WHICH ALSO RANKS BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF SOUNDING  
CLIMATOLOGY FOR FEBRUARY 21. WHILE THE DGZ IS WITHIN THE LAYER  
THAT'S CLOSEST TO SATURATED, IT IS SHALLOW AND VERY ELEVATED,  
WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR TO GET THROUGH BEFORE IT REACHES THE  
SURFACE. REGARDLESS, IF FLURRIES REACH THE GROUND, THERE WOULD  
BE NO RESULTING IMPACTS.  
 
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES FINALLY STARTING TO WARM UP: HIGH TEMPS  
TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTHWEST OF I-44, INCREASING INTO  
THE LOW 30S FURTHEST SOUTH. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,  
THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.  
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FURTHEST WEST AND IN  
LOW-LYING AREAS, AND LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE.  
 
AS THE SUN SOAKS IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SNOW WILL BEGIN TO  
MELT A BIT MORE. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WELL BELOW  
FREEZING, ANY SNOW THAT DOES MELT WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT, SO  
REMAIN MINDFUL THAT WARMING UP DOESN'T MEAN THAT THE THREAT OF  
SLICK ROADWAYS IS BEHIND US.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 132 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025  
 
DRY AND GENERALLY UNREMARKABLE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM,  
REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY AND STRETCHING  
INTO THE 50S IN MUCH OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI ON SUNDAY. THE WORK  
WEEK CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS STARTING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES  
IN THE 60S. A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED  
BY A SHORTWAVE SWEEPING THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY, WHICH IS WHEN LOW (15-30%) CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN TO  
THE FORECAST.  
 
WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER A MELTING SNOWPACK INTRODUCES SOME  
QUESTIONS ABOUT FOG ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL,  
WITH LOW (25TH AND BELOW) HREF PERCENTILES BEGINNING TO PICK UP  
ON SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY IN OUR FAR WESTERN MISSOURI  
COUNTIES AND INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,  
THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN HREF MEMBERS, WITH ONLY A 20-30%  
CHANCE OF VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW 1 MILE IN THIS FAR WESTERN  
AREA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025  
 
VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE SITS OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI, WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE  
REGION. WINDS MAY BE MORE VARIABLE ON A LOCAL SCALE THIS  
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST, BUT GENERALLY WILL REMAIN  
LIGHT (AROUND OR LESS THAN 5 KTS) AND PREVAILINGLY SOUTHERLY  
THROUGH TONIGHT. A LAYER OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY FORM AROUND  
5KFT OVERNIGHT, BUT NO IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE  
EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF FREEZING FOG IN THE EARLY  
SATURDAY MORNING HOURS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD FREEZING  
FOG IS BELOW 30% AND THUS HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS  
TIME.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025  
 
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE 48-53  
DEGREE RANGE. NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE  
IN THE 28-32 DEGREE RANGE.  
 
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:  
 
FEBRUARY 21:  
KSGF: 0/1978  
KJLN: 9/1963  
KVIH: 2/1963  
KUNO: 2/1963  
 
FEBRUARY 22:  
KJLN: 7/1963  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...CAMDEN  
LONG TERM...CAMDEN  
AVIATION...CAMDEN  
CLIMATE...CAMDEN  
 
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