583
FXUS63 KSGF 212311
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
511 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW (<15%) CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES NORTH OF A PITTSBURG
KS TO LAKE OF THE OZARKS LINE. NO IMPACTS WILL OCCUR.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL SUPPORT MELTING OF THE EXISTING SNOWPACK. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 132 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF
THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS, WHILE A BROAD RIDGE IN THE
LOW-LEVELS EXTENDS FROM THE GULF INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS NEAR THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.
ON RADAR, FLURRIES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE STREAKED ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
DRY CONVEYOR BELT OF THE CYCLONE.
THERE IS A LOW (5-14%) CHANCE OF FLURRIES NORTH OF A PITTSBURG
KS TO LAKE OF THE OZARKS LINE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY ONLY
SEE FLURRIES IF A SNOW SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS UPSTREAM IN A BETTER
ENVIRONMENT IS ABLE TO SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT INTO OUR
AREA. CONDITIONS FURTHER EAST INTO MISSOURI ARE LESS FAVORABLE
FOR ANY TYPE OF PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
BECAUSE OF A SIGNIFICANT LACK OF MOISTURE.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH, THE AIR IS INCREDIBLY DRY,
WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS VERIFYING BELOW THE NBM 10TH
PERCENTILE. ON THE 12Z SOUNDING, SGF MEASURED A PW OF 0.14",
WHICH ALSO RANKS BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY FOR FEBRUARY 21. WHILE THE DGZ IS WITHIN THE LAYER
THAT'S CLOSEST TO SATURATED, IT IS SHALLOW AND VERY ELEVATED,
WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR TO GET THROUGH BEFORE IT REACHES THE
SURFACE. REGARDLESS, IF FLURRIES REACH THE GROUND, THERE WOULD
BE NO RESULTING IMPACTS.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES FINALLY STARTING TO WARM UP: HIGH TEMPS
TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTHWEST OF I-44, INCREASING INTO
THE LOW 30S FURTHEST SOUTH. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FURTHEST WEST AND IN
LOW-LYING AREAS, AND LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE.
AS THE SUN SOAKS IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
MELT A BIT MORE. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WELL BELOW
FREEZING, ANY SNOW THAT DOES MELT WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT, SO
REMAIN MINDFUL THAT WARMING UP DOESN'T MEAN THAT THE THREAT OF
SLICK ROADWAYS IS BEHIND US.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 132 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
DRY AND GENERALLY UNREMARKABLE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM,
REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY AND STRETCHING
INTO THE 50S IN MUCH OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI ON SUNDAY. THE WORK
WEEK CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS STARTING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S. A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A SHORTWAVE SWEEPING THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WHICH IS WHEN LOW (15-30%) CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN TO
THE FORECAST.
WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER A MELTING SNOWPACK INTRODUCES SOME
QUESTIONS ABOUT FOG ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL,
WITH LOW (25TH AND BELOW) HREF PERCENTILES BEGINNING TO PICK UP
ON SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY IN OUR FAR WESTERN MISSOURI
COUNTIES AND INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN HREF MEMBERS, WITH ONLY A 20-30%
CHANCE OF VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW 1 MILE IN THIS FAR WESTERN
AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WAS PUSHING INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE. LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY, SO WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH CEILINGS REMAINING VFR IN
THE 6000-8000 FT RANGE. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, BUT SHOULD BECOME
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY MORNING BUT REMAIN LIGHT
AT LESS THAT 10 KTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE 48-53
DEGREE RANGE. NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
IN THE 28-32 DEGREE RANGE.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 21:
KSGF: 0/1978
KJLN: 9/1963
KVIH: 2/1963
KUNO: 2/1963
FEBRUARY 22:
KJLN: 7/1963
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAMDEN
LONG TERM...CAMDEN
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
CLIMATE...CAMDEN
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