604
FXUS63 KSGF 270000
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
700 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S FOR THURSDAY.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-70%) RETURN LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SEVERE WEATHER OCCURING
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF MISSOURI THROUGH THIS EVENING
ALLOWING WINDS TO SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE THE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 30% RANGE TODAY, FIRE
DANGER SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION WHICH
WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING WINDS
ALONG WITH WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TO OCCUR AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS MAY GUST FROM 20 TO 30
MPH AT TIMES. AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS
MAY OCCUR, THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
MODELS HAVE DIFFERING OUTPUT BUT FROM 500-1000J/KG OF CAPE
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE DURING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT, WHICH BY THAT TIME OF DAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. ENSEMBLE MEAN PWAT
VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH A 40-45KT LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA, THE ENERGY AND INSTABILITY COULD LEAD
TO CONVECTION, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES (20-40%) GENERALLY NORTH
OF HWY 60 TOWARDS CENTRAL MISSOURI. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER
GOOD AS A RESULT OF TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE OZARKS (THIS IS ONLY THE 25-50TH
PERCENTILE). CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB AND AREAS THAT SEE LESS CLOUDS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER (POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE 75TH PERCENTILE).
REGARDLESS, HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
IF STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WOULD
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT LARGE HAIL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY LIFTING THE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH WITH IT. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR FRIDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TO REACH INTO FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI. AS A RESULT,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE (30-40%) BEGINNING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH CHANCES (30-50%) SHIFTING TOWARDS SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE AS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN AND
MODELS SHIFTS TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE
OZARKS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION, HOWEVER, CURRENT INDICATIONS KEEP THE REGION
CAPPED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY UNTIL AFTER DARK OR OVERNIGHT.
IF ANY STORMS CAN THEN DEVELOP, THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE
ISOLATED ELEVATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERN.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING/ADVANCEMENT OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY. MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND LIFT WILL
ALL BE AVAILABLE AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE ROCKIES AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WHERE
POTENTIAL SEVERE STORM THREAT DEVELOPS WILL OCCUR WILL BE LINKED
TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. A SLOWER PROGRESSION WILL ALLOW
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TO HAVE SEVERE CHANCES, WHEREAS A FASTER
PROGRESSION WILL LEAD TO THE EASTERN CWA SEEING THE BETTER
SEVERE THREAT. CURRENTLY GOING WITH 50-70% POPS, HOWEVER WE'LL
NEED TO HONE IN ON THIS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME PERIOD AND
CONFIDENCE INCREASE.
ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL. OVERALL, QPF FOR THE PERIOD FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE 1.50" TO
2.50" RANGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING
THEN WILL BECOME MORE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY LATER THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT THEN SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING THEN WILL LOWER DURING THE DAY WITH
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THURSDAY.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...WISE
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