621
FXUS63 KSGF 271018
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
518 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S FOR TODAY.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-70%) RETURN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SEVERE WEATHER OCCURING SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL MO BEFORE
MIDNIGHT, AND ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHEAST. THERE CURRENTLY
HASN'T BEEN ANY LIGHTNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY IN OUR AREA,
HOWEVER CAN'T RULE OUT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, ADVECTING EVEN MORE WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE INTO THE OZARKS REGION. AS A RESULT, THERE'S PRETTY
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S, WITH ONLY A 4 DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 25TH AND
75TH PERCENTILES. THAT BEING SAID, CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, SO WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THINGS
PROGRESS - REGARDLESS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON,
WITH MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY, ENSEMBLE
MEAN PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO 1.0 INCH. WITH A 40-45KT LOW LEVEL
JET MOVING OVER NORTHERN MO, THE ENERGY AND INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO CONVECTION, HOWEVER A QUESTION REMAINS IN HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH. THE BETTER CONVECTION POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO STAY NORTH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER THERE'S STILL A 20-40% CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY NORTH OF HWY 54 LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. IF THESE STORMS CAN REACH OUR AREA, THEY'LL POSE
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE LEVELS, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.
FOR TONIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE WARM FRONT CONTINUING TO LIFT
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE PUSHING TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON FRIDAY, ORIENTING THE MID- LEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S, WITH WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 25-35MPH (60-90% CHANCE OF GUSTS >30MPH AND 40-60%
CHANCE OF >35MPH WEST OF HWY 65). PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE
DECREASED TO <20% IN SOUTHERN MO THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, HOWEVER MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
INCREASING CHANCES TO 40-60% TOWARDS SOUTHEAST MO.
THE FLOW THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT, WITH A DEEPER TROUGH
PUSHING THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE LEE
SIDE OF THE ROCKIES, PUSHING NORTHEAST AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THERE'S STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS WE'RE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT. ONE ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY
IS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT, AS SEVERAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE, AND CAPPING STILL POTENTIALLY
HINDERING CONVECTION. AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES NORTHWEST MO, A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO DEVELOP, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING IN EASTERN KANSAS. IF THESE
STORMS DEVELOP, SOME COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE,
WITH LARGE HAIL CURRENTLY THE PRIMARY HAZARD. SPC HAS ISSUED A
MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
ANOTHER ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE TIMING/PROGRESSION ON
SUNDAY, AS THAT WILL LARGELY INFLUENCE THE LOCATION OF THE MAIN
SEVERE RISK (SLOWER PROGRESSION PUTS THE ENTIRE CWA IN A SEVERE
THREAT, WHEREAS A FASTER PROGRESSION WILL LIMIT IT TO THE
EASTERN CWA). CONTINUING TO GO WITH 50-70% POPS, HOWEVER WE'LL
NEED TO HONE IN ON THIS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME PERIOD AND
CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND BECOME BREEZY. GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL THREE TERMINALS, WITH JLN AT THE HIGHER
END OF THAT RANGE.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...MELTO
AVIATION...MELTO
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