062
FXUS63 KSGF 281735
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1235 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80S FOR TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-80%) RETURN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SEVERE WEATHER OCCURING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE OZARKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT IS ACROSS THE EASTERN
OZARKS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION.
- PERIODS OF ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE NEXT
WEEK AND INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
CURRENT MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ACTUALLY A BIT
DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT SPECIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS AS MOISTURE
SEEMS WELL IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. RAP ANALYSIS REVEALS THE
MAIN REASON BEING LARGE-SCALE RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS,
CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS, WITH WEAK TROUGHING SLOWLY TRANSLATING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGING IS ALLOWING FOR THE
DYNAMIC SURFACE FEATURES TO BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER. WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT HAVING ALMOST FULLY
LIFTED THROUGH MISSOURI, SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PULLING GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA, FINALLY GIVING SOME FIRE WEATHER RELIEF. THE
LARGE-SCALE RIDGING IN PLACE WILL SUSTAIN THIS PATTERN FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, ALLOWING FOR WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR TO SETTLE
INTO PLACE. LOWS TONIGHT ARE ON TRACK TO STAY MILD IN THE MIDDLE
50S TO LOWER 60S.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND:
FOR THE MOST PART, HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S. HOWEVER, WITH THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS, CURRENT MESOANALYSIS AND SHORT-TERM MODEL
FORECASTS SHOW ADVECTION OF A MODIFIED COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH TX. THIS WILL BE
ADVECTED INTO SW MO THROUGH TODAY, POTENTIALLY KEEPING HIGHS IN
THE SW CORNER TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL ALSO START FILTERING IN TONIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP LOWS MILD
AGAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
30-70% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO SATURDAY:
BEFORE THE MAIN SHOW MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, A SUBTLE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL VERY, VERY SLOWLY PUSH NE THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE WEAK NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE
WILL KEEP LIFT ON THE WEAKER SIDE, HOWEVER, WITH CONSTANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY PUSH INTO FAR SOUTHERN MO THIS AFTERNOON
(15-35% CHANCE).
THE WAVE WILL (AGAIN) VERY, VERY SLOWLY LIFT NE, MOVING THE AXIS
OF RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND EAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING 20-50% RAIN CHANCES EAST
OF HIGHWAY 65 AND SOUTH OF I-44 FRIDAY NIGHT, AND 30-70% CHANCES
EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEEN WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SLIGHT (2 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT:
A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL JUST BE ENTERING
THE PACIFIC COAST THIS MORNING. THIS LARGER, MORE POTENT WAVE
WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY AND SATURDAY,
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A PRETTY DISTINCT NEGATIVE TILT. THE WAVE WILL BE ABLE TO
INTERACT WITH THE AIR MASS ACROSS OUR AREA THAT WILL HAVE BEEN
ALLOWED TO INCREASINGLY MOISTEN, PRODUCING 1000-2000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE. INCREASED FLOW WITHIN THE WAVE WILL GENERATE 30-40 KTS
OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR (BOTH MUCAPE AND BULK SHEAR SIMULATED BY
THE SREF). THIS CAPE/SHEAR COMBO WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT. INDEED, THE SPC HAS AREAS ALONG AND NW
OF I-44 IN A SLIGHT (2 OF 5) RISK.
THE WAVE HAVING TRAVERSED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
AND DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WITH IT A PRONOUNCED ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER (EML) CHARACTERIZED BY 7.5-8.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. EARLY RAP RUNS PAIRED WITH 03Z SREF PROBABILITIES EVEN
SUGGEST A 50-70% CHANCE OF LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN THAT RANGE.
THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER INSTABILITY,
HOWEVER, IT WILL ALSO COME WITH GREATER CAPPING. EARLY NAM 3KM
SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY, VERY STOUT INVERSION. THE CAP SHOULD KEEP
STORMS FROM INITIATING IN EAST-CENTRAL KS UNTIL THE NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES AFTER SUNSET, PROVIDING LIFT ABOVE THE
INVERSION WITHIN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES. THESE STORMS WOULD THEN
SPREAD INTO WEST MO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, POTENTIALLY
CONTINUING INTO CENTRAL MO SUNDAY MORNING.
WITH ELEVATED SUPERCELL STORMS BEING THE MOST LIKELY MODE,
LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN HAZARD DRIVING THE SLIGHT RISK (15%).
HOWEVER, A CRASHING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
UNDERCUTTING THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS COULD OVERCOME THE
INVERSION AND ALLOW FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LINE OF WIND-
DRIVEN STORMS AS WELL. THIS IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE SCENARIO,
THOUGH (5%).
SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY:
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR EAST THE STORMS GET SUNDAY
MORNING. THE SPC HAS THE REST OF OUR CWA IN A SLIGHT (2 OF 5)
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TO COVER THE MORNING EXTENT OF THESE
STORMS. HOW FAR EAST THEY GET WILL DETERMINE THE SEVERE RISK FOR
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING OF SUNDAY. GEFS AND CSU MACHINE
LEARNING MODELS ALSO SHOW THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH A BROAD GRADIENT
ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THEIR RISKS. NEVERTHELESS, THE FURTHER
EAST YOU GO, THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LESS TAMPERING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE FROM THE MORNING STORMS. FOR THIS REASON, THE SPC HAS
PUT THE EASTERN OZARKS IN AN ENHANCED (3 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. EXACT DETAILS WILL BE
GLEANED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS, BUT IN A BROAD NUTSHELL, SREF
FORECASTS PLACE A MEAN SUPERCELL COMPOSITE PARAMETER OF 9-12 AND
A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER OF 1-2 WITHIN THE ENHANCED RISK.
THIS WOULD IMPLY AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND ALL
HAZARDS. THE SPC DOES PLACE HATCHING FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
HAZARDS.
PERIODS OF ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK:
AFTER THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH, COOLER HIGHS IN
THE 50S WILL OCCUR MONDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT, THE EASTERN OZARKS MAY
SEE A SLIGHT FROST RISK WITH LOWS FORECAST TO DROP IN THE LOWER
30S. EAST OF HIGHWAY 5, THE NBM GIVES A 40-70% CHANCE FOR <36
F, WITH A 10-20% CHANCE FOR <32 F. WITH THE FLORA GREENING UP
RATHER QUICKLY THE PAST WEEK, THIS COULD BRING SOME
AGRICULTURAL CONCERNS.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL NOT LAST LONG, THOUGH, AS ANOTHER
WAVE SCREAMS INTO THE REGION, QUICKLY BRINGING BACK SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND RENEWED WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION (HIGHS BACK INTO
THE 60S AND 70S). THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT (BUT DEFINITELY AT LEAST RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES-- 60-80% AT THE MOMENT). GEFS, EURO, AND
CSU MACHINE LEARNING MODELS DO PUT A NICE SWATH OF SEVERE
WEATHER PROBABILITIES OVER OUR AREA. HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT THE
MODELS DIVERGE HEAVILY ACCORDING TO CLUSTER ANALYSIS. EVEN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE WILDLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. MOST EURO
AND GEPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT A SLOWER AND MORE BROAD TROUGH
EJECTION, WHICH INCREASES DEWPOINTS/INSTABILITY IN OUR REGION,
AND TIMES THE SYSTEM WITH PEAK HEATING, WHICH WOULD INCREASE OUR
SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY. THE GEFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
COMPACT WITH THE WAVE, KEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY A BIT MORE
MEAGER, WHILE ALSO BRINGING THE SYSTEM THROUGH DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS, WHICH WOULD DECREASE OUR SEVERE THREAT. MODEL
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A FAVORED TROUGH SHAPE
AND TIMING.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH, MODELS DIVERGE EVEN MORE, MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY WHEN AND HOW A WAVE WILL
INTERACT WITH MOISTURE. THIS IS GIVING 30-50% CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS UNCERTAINTY
IS EVEN MORE MANIFEST IN THE NBM TEMPERATURES SPREADS. 25TH TO
75TH PERCENTILE SPREADS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AFTER WEDNESDAY
ARE 20-25 DEGREES! 50% OF THE MODELS HAVE A HIGH TEMPERATURE
RANGE FROM 65 TO 90 F. VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE CAN BE GLEANED
FROM SPREADS LIKE THIS.
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST:
THE CPC CONTINUES TO PUT MUCH OF THE CONUS WITHIN A SIGNAL FOR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. AREAS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH AND EAST
OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI HAVE SOMEWHAT HIGHER PROBABILITIES. THIS
POINTS TO MORE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS COMING IN THE
WEEK FOLLOWING THIS ONE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS STAY GUSTY UP TO 40 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR TONIGHT. A THICKER CLOUD
DECK MOVES IN OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS AND A
CHANCE FOR RAIN BY LATE MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 65. WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...SORIA
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