200
FXUS63 KSGF 282307
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
607 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ROUND 1 OF SEVERE WEATHER (SLIGHT RISK 2/5) WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN HAZARDS IN THOSE STORMS. EXPECT SUPERCELLS TO BE THE
PRIMARY STORM MODE.
- ROUND 2 OF SEVERE WEATHER (ENHANCED RISK 3/5) WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AREAS MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.
ROUND 2 WILL HAVE HIGHER SEVERE CHANCES THAN ROUND 1. ALL
SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY INCLUDING LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES.
- PERIODS OF ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE NEXT
WEEK AND INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOOKING
MORE LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY COUPLED WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET HAS
BROUGHT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-44. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN MO UNTIL THE SHORT-
WAVE AND LLJ PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING.
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THOUGH, CLOUD COVER WAS A
BIT THICKER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THAN ANTICIPATED, THEREFORE, HAVE
LOWERED HOURLY TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AS THE NEXT SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES EAST
TOWARDS THE STATE. SO FAR, WIND GUSTS HAVE TOPPED OUT AROUND 45-50
MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DECREASE A BIT THIS EVENING BUT STILL
REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 25 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
TWO ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR AS TWO SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST ROUND WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY NIGHT PRIMARILY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THAT FIRST ROUND WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF
BALLS ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF I-49, AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH. THE STORM MODE FOR TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE SUPERCELLULAR
AND ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE INCLUDING A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.
THE SECOND ROUND WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH, THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS A BIT TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AS IT WILL
ALL BE BASED ON WHERE INITIATION STARTS. RIGHT NOW, IT SEEMS THAT
THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. THIS ROUND WILL HAVE HIGHER SEVERE
CHANCES THAN ROUND 1 AND ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY: THE MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE POSITIONS ITSELF OVER
EASTERN MO TOMORROW FOR MOST OF THE MORNING BRINGING A 30-70%
CHANCE OF RAIN EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. THIS WILL HELP TO ESTABLISH
THE SEVERE WEATHER SET UP THAT WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY.
AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 WILL CLEAR OUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON
ALLOWING DIURNAL HEATING TO OCCUR. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL ALREADY
BE IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE STATE DUE TO THE LINGERING WARM
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS SITTING IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY,
EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 TOMORROW
NIGHT. LAPSE RATES ARE 7-8 C/KM WEST OF I-49 WHICH WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE HAIL TO FALL IN THAT AREA. MOST OF THE
SUPERCELLS WILL BE ELEVATED, THOUGH IF A FEW STORMS CAN BECOME
SURFACE BASED, THEY COULD DROP A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL.
SPC HAS KEPT AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 IN A SLIGHT
RISK (2/5) FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY: A FEW STORMS FROM ROUND 1 MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. DEPENDING ON WHAT TIME THIS
ACTIVITY DISSIPATES, WILL AFFECT WHEN THE NEXT ROUND INITIATES.
EARLIER DISSIPATION OF THESE STORMS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER QUICKER AND WOULD YIELD A HIGHER CHANCE
FOR SEVERE STORMS AND/OR FURTHER WEST REDEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA (WEST OF HIGHWAY 65)
IS IN A SLIGHT (2 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO COVER THE
MORNING EXTENT OF THESE STORMS. SPC HAS PUT THE EASTERN OZARKS
IN AN ENHANCED (3 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.
THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO IN MO, THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LESS
TAMPERING OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE MORNING STORMS. SREF
FORECASTS PLACE A MEAN SUPERCELL COMPOSITE PARAMETER OF 9-12 AND
A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER OF 1-2 WITHIN THE ENHANCED
RISK. THIS WOULD IMPLY AN ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE OF
SUPERCELLS AND ALL HAZARDS. THOUGH, MIXED-MODE STORMS ALONG
THE FRONT IS THE MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME. SPC DOES PLACE HATCHING
FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS TO OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN
OZARKS AND THIS ENHANCED RISK MAY BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK
(4/5) IF THE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
FIRST WEEK OF APRIL: IVT (INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT) AND
OTHER MOISTURE TRANSPORT GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT LATER NEXT WEEK. THE CPC CONTINUES
TO PUT MUCH OF THE CONUS WITHIN A SIGNAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. AREAS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN
MISSOURI HAVE SOMEWHAT HIGHER PROBABILITIES. THE CPC ALSO HAS
ALL OF THE STATE IN A SLIGHT RISK (20-40%) FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND A MODERATE RISK (40-60%) FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN MO. SPC HAS OUR ENTIRE CWA IN A
50-29% CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY, APRIL
2ND. THIS POINTS TO MORE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS COMING
IN THE WEEK FOLLOWING THIS ONE, BE PREPARED FOR AN ACTIVE WEEK
AHEAD.
DUE TO THE DAILY RAIN CHANCES MOST OF NEXT WEEK, HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. THIS IS MOST
LIKELY DUE TO ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING AND/OR DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. RIGHT NOW, HAVE HIGHS NEXT WEEK IN THE
60S AND 70S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, CEILINGS WILL INITIALLY IMPROVE AND BE IN VFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL AROUND 06Z. AFTER THAT, LOWER CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CONVECTION
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS SET OF TAFS EXPIRES. WINDS MAY
BE OFF/ON GUSTINESS UP TO 25 KTS TONIGHT AT SGF/JLN AND WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAYTIME ON SATURDAY.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SORIA
LONG TERM...SORIA
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
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