646
FXUS63 KSGF 291646
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ROUND 1 OF SEVERE WEATHER (SLIGHT RISK 2 OF 5) WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS IN
THOSE STORMS. EXPECT A MIXED MODE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
WITHIN A LINE OF STORMS.
- ROUND 2 OF SEVERE WEATHER (ENHANCED RISK 3 OF 5) WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AREAS MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.
ROUND 2 WILL HAVE HIGHER SEVERE CHANCES THAN ROUND 1. ALL
SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY INCLUDING LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH, AND TORNADOES. SIGNIFICANT HAIL
UP TO TENNIS BALLS OR LARGER WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.
- PERIODS OF ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE NEXT
WEEK AND INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS BENEATH A SLOW-MOVING MID-
LEVEL 700 MB SHORTWAVE, AS NOTED IN MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS. THE MOISTURE IS MANIFESTING AS LOW
CLOUDS AS SEEN BY INFRARED SATELLITE, AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS
LIFTING NNE EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 AS SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY. AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH VERY SLOWLY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY,
THE SHOWERS WILL ALSO PROGRESS EASTWARD. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WILL
ALLOW 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE THIS AFTERNOON, SO A FEW ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTH- CENTRAL MO
(30-60% CHANCE). THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
ADDITIONALLY, DEEP LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS ONGOING ACROSS THE CO/KS
BORDER. THIS IS KEEPING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS RELATIVELY TIGHT, ALLOWING FOR SOMEWHAT PERSISTENTLY
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH TODAY.
ROUND 1 OF SEVERE WEATHER (SLIGHT RISK) LATE TONIGHT:
THE SEVERE RISK RAMPS UP LATE TONIGHT AS A MORE POTENT
NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH--
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC COAST--TRANSLATES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES EASTWARD, THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NE INTO NORTH MO, AND A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DIVE INTO EAST KS TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DIG INTO A
MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 1250-1750 J/KG OF MUCAPE
(ACCORDING TO THE HREF MEAN). INCREASED FLOW BENEATH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 35-45 KTS. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SETS THE STAGE FOR A SLIGHT (2 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND TRIPLE
POINT IN CENTRAL KS/NORTH OK. THESE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ENE, WITH
HREF PAINTBALLS SHOWING THE STORM CLUSTERS REACHING OUR SE KS
COUNTIES BY 12-1 AM TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT, CAMS DIVERGE ON
STORM MODE (LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MOST LIKELY HAZARDS).
FROM A CONCEPTUAL MODEL, SHEAR VECTORS ARE LARGELY PARALLEL TO
THE COLD FRONT. ADD IN THE STRONG CONVERGENCE OF THE CRASHING
COLD FRONT, AND A SQUALL LINE/MCS/BOWING CLUSTER SEEMS THE MOST
LIKELY STORM MODE, BRINGING PREDOMINANTLY DAMAGING WINDS UP TO
60-70 MPH AS THE MAIN HAZARD. HOWEVER, AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE
NEAR-SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO STABILIZE AS REFERENCED BY
HREF AND SREF MEAN SOUNDINGS. WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7-8 C/KM ABOVE THIS LAYER, EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS POSING A LARGE
HAIL RISK ALSO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. DIFFERENT CAMS SEEM TO SUPPORT
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS, SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THESE STORMS WILL
ROLL THROUGH SE KS THROUGH INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MO BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 7 AM TONIGHT, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 60-70 MPH, AND LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS. THE TORNADO RISK APPEARS LOW AS SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
DWINDLES THROUGH THE NIGHT, HOWEVER, A 30-35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL BE PRESENT, SO ANY STORMS THAT CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED (OR
ANY BOWING SEGMENT THAT ORIENTS NW-SE) COULD BRING A LOW
TORNADO THREAT, GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-49.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
ROUND 2 OF SEVERE WEATHER (ENHANCED RISK) SUNDAY AFTERNOON:
THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF TONIGHT'S STORM CLUSTERS IS CURRENTLY
UNCERTAIN, WHICH BRINGS UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING
OF REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT'S
GENERALLY KNOWN THAT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES IN THE WARM SEASON WILL
GENERALLY LAST A BIT LONGER THAN CAMS SHOW, HOWEVER, IT IS STILL
MARCH, SO THERE COULD BE LESS OF A BIAS CORRECTION HERE. SO,
TAKING THE DIFFERENT MODELS AT FACE VALUE, HERE'S TWO EXTREME
SCENARIOS THAT GIVE A RANGE OF THE LIKELY LOCATION AND TIMING OF
REDEVELOPMENT FOR SUNDAY'S STORMS:
SCENARIO 1 (WASH OUT): ON ONE END OF THE SPECTRUM, THE ARW MODEL
DEPICTS STORMS CONGEALING INTO A MEGA-CHONKER MCS THAT SURGES
THROUGH OUR ENTIRE CWA INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE RAIN-COOLED AIR
LEFT BY THIS WOULD STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR MOST OF OUR
AREA AND ACCELERATE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, LEADING TO FURTHER
EASTWARD REDEVELOPMENT (ALONG HWY 63). THIS WOULD LIMIT SEVERE
HAZARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 63.
SCENARIO 2 (UNIMPEDED DEVELOPMENT): ON THE OTHER END OF THE
SPECTRUM, THE FV3 MODEL SHOWS THE MORNING STORMS DISSIPATING
RATHER QUICKLY, ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 65. THIS WOULD ALLOW
GREATER WARMING AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS A LARGER AREA IN OUR
CWA, LEADING TO FURTHER WESTWARD REDEVELOPMENT (ALONG HWY 65).
THIS WOULD EXPAND SEVERE HAZARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO ALONG AND
EAST OF HWY 65.
SCENARIO 3 (SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN): IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO
EXTREME SCENARIOS ABOVE, THE HRRR/NAM/NSSL/MPAS MODELS ALL HAVE
SUNDAY MORNING'S STORMS LARGELY DISSIPATING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
THE HWY 65 AND HWY 63 CORRIDOR, WHICH MEANS REDEVELOPMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR AS
WELL.
NO MATTER THE LOCATION OF REDEVELOPMENT, CAMS ARE ALSO A TAD
SPREAD ON TIMING, WITH SOME SHOWING INITIATION AS EARLY AS 2 PM,
AND SOME AS LATE AS 6 PM. HOPEFULLY WE CAN HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON TIMING AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE FIRST ROUND OF
STORMS.
ALL THAT BEING SAID, HREF MEAN AND HRRR/RAP/NAM SOUNDING
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT WITH LARGE
HAIL BEING THE MOST LIKELY AND IMPACTFUL. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
80 WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS ALLOW FOR MEAN SBCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG BENEATH 40-50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THIS,
ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7 C/KM AND NEAR 3 KM HGZ
THICKNESSES, LEADS TO LARGE HAIL PARAMETER VALUES OF 8-12.
RESEARCH SHOWS THIS WOULD COINCIDE WITH TENNIS BALL OR HIGHER
MAXIMUM HAIL SIZES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAZARD IS ADDED THROUGH
ELONGATED AND RELATIVELY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WITH MODEST 0-1 KM
SHEAR. THE MAIN FAIL MODE FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL WOULD BE
RELATIVELY WEAK 0-1 KM SURFACE RELATIVE INFLOW WHICH MAY KEEP
UPDRAFTS A BIT SMALLER. HIGHER CAPE VALUES MAY BE ABLE TO
COMPENSATE FOR THIS, THOUGH. ADDITIONALLY, THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SHARP,
WITH SHEAR VECTORS ABOUT 20-30 DEGREES PERPENDICULAR. THIS COULD
QUICKLY CONGEAL STORMS, DECREASING THE HAIL THREAT AND MAKING
FOR MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.
HOWEVER, RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE ABLE TO STAY OFF THE
BOUNDARY AND REMAIN SOMEWHAT DISCRETE ACCORDING TO BUFKIT. THE
TORNADO THREAT IS CERTAINLY THERE, BUT ON THE LOWER END GIVEN
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW- LEVEL CURVATURE AND SHEAR. FAVORABLE STORM
INTERACTIONS WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL.
PERIODS OF ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK:
AFTER THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER HIGHS IN THE 50S
MONDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S AGAIN WITH WEAK
WINDS AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE EASTERN OZARKS HAVE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES NEAR 32 F, WHICH COULD BRING FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL
TO THE AREA.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES DON'T STAY LONG, THOUGH, AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. HIGHS WARM TO THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S TUESDAY, THEN INTO THE MIDDLE 70S WEDNESDAY. THE SPC
DOES HAVE US IN A 15% RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE
WAVE. THE EXTREME FORECAST INDEX HAS 0.75-0.85 VALUES WITH A
SHIFT OF THE TAIL ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA FOR CAPE/SHEAR COMBO.
SO THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL,
IT WILL MAINLY JUST DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE WAVE. CONTRARY TO
LAST NIGHT'S FORECAST, THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ARE IN A BIT MORE AGREEMENT FOR THE EASTERN OZARKS TO BE IN THE
BEST TIMING LOCATION FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. MACHINE LEARNING
MODELS ALSO ARE PICKING UP ON THE EASTWARD TREND. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS MOVING FORWARD.
FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY, THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN LOOKS TO PUT US
UNDER STEADY-STATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH THE SURFACE FRONT
STALLING SOMEWHERE ALONG OUR AREA. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, BUT
IF THEY MOVE OVERTOP THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY, MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE (30-60% DAILY
CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY). WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THESE SYSTEMS FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING AS STALLED FRONTS AND
UNIFORM FLOW OVERTOP THE FRONTS GENERALLY ARE GOOD SETUPS FOR
PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN.
OTHERWISE, THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ALSO
MANIFEST IN TEMPERATURE SPREADS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT NBM SPREADS HINT AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES RANGING ANYWHERE FROM THE MIDDLE
60S TO THE LOWER 80S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
A SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH
SUNDAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT, IMPACTING THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SUNDAY.
PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
ACTIVITY AS A RESULT OF REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. MVFR
CEILINGS LINGER BEHIND THIS ROUND OF ACTIVITY IN THE LATER PART
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MEANWHILE, SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, TURNING OUT OF WEST/SOUTHWEST
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...PEREZ
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