190
FXUS63 KSGF 292317
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
617 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ROUND 1 OF SEVERE WEATHER (SLIGHT RISK 2 OF 5) WILL OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS INTO
WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MO, GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 44. PRIMARY STORM MODE WILL BE A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- ROUND 2 OF SEVERE WEATHER (ENHANCED RISK 3 OF 5) WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AREAS MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY INCLUDING LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
SIGNIFICANT HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALLS OR LARGER WITH ANY
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.
- BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S ON
MONDAY NIGHT, CREATING A FROST RISK, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
OZARKS.
- WINDS WILL GET GUSTY AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
- PERIODS OF ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE NEXT
WEEK AND INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING: LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS
BENEATH A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY, A DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUPPORTS BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE 70S AREAWIDE, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS PUSHING 80
ACROSS THE WEST. THE DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT SOME
DESTABILIZATION, WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. THUS, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH- CENTRAL MO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE. MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY.
TONIGHT - SUNDAY MORNING (ROUND 1): AS WE PROGRESS INTO
TONIGHT, AN ADDITIONAL AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND LIFTS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI, WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT DIVING INTO EASTERN KS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, A
MOIST REGIME SUPPORTS MUCAPE UPWARDS OF ~1500 J/KG THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 TO
45 KNOTS. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR ROUND 1 OF POTENTIAL STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A SPC SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 5)
EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHEAST KS INTO PORTIONS WEST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL MO. THIS RISK FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WAS EXTENDED
FURTHER EASTWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR A POTENTIAL FASTER EVOLUTION OF
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS AND NORTHERN OK LATE TONIGHT, WITH STORM MOTIONS TO
THE ENE. HREF SUPPORTS THIS ACTIVITY REACHING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST CAMS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS THE SOLUTION OF A SQUALL LINE/MCS STORM MODE,
SUPPORTING BOWING SEGMENTS AND PREDOMINATELY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH IN THIS SCENARIO, WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THAT WOULD FURTHER
SUPPORT LARGE HAIL (UP TO GOLF BALLS). RATHER, THE PREDICTED
STORM MODE WILL SUPPORT SMALLER HAIL, UP TO NICKEL AND QUARTER
SIZED.
MEANWHILE, THE TORNADO RISK REMAINS VERY LOW GIVEN THE MINIMAL
LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF A
30-35 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT EMBEDDED MESOVORTICIES
ALONG BOWING SEGMENTS THAT ORIENT NW TO SE. THIS WILL BE BETTER
ANALYZED IN THE MESOSCALE OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. OVERALL,
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS, WITH A LOWER
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE THE AREA INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS REMAINS A KEY
COMPONENT AND REMAINING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE
PROGRESS TOWARDS ROUND 2 ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON - SUNDAY NIGHT (ROUND 2): THE ATTENTION THEN
QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE MESOANALYSIS AFTER THE
DEPARTURE/DISSIPATION OF THE SUNDAY MORNING ACTIVITY. THIS
REMAINING UNCERTAINTY SETS THE STAGE FOR VARIOUS SCENARIOS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A HANDFUL OF THE CAMS SLIGHTLY LEANING
TOWARDS ONE OR TWO OF THE SCENARIOS. LIKEWISE TO THE PREVIOUS
AFD, WE WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT THREE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS THAT
GIVE A RANGE OF THE LIKELY LOCATION AND TIMING FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT (ROUND 2).
SCENARIO 1 (WASH OUT): THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS THE OVERNIGHT
COMPLEX AND RAIN-COOLED AIR STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND
ACCELERATES THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, LEADING TO FURTHER EASTWARD
REDEVELOPMENT (ALONG OR EAST OF HWY 63). THIS WOULD LIMIT
SEVERE HAZARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 63.
SCENARIO 2 (UNIMPEDED DEVELOPMENT): LASTLY, A SCENARIO IS
PRESENTED THAT SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RAPIDLY DISSIPATING
AND FURTHER WEST WEAKENING. THIS WOULD ALLOW GREATER WARMING AND
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS A LARGER AREA IN OUR CWA, LEADING TO
FURTHER WESTWARD REDEVELOPMENT (ALONG HWY 65). THIS WOULD EXPAND
SEVERE HAZARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 65.
SCENARIO 3 (SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN):A SECOND SCENARIO IS SUNDAY
MORNING'S ACTIVITY LARGELY DISSIPATING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE HWY
65 AND HWY 63 CORRIDOR, WHICH MEANS REDEVELOPMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR AS
WELL.
GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS, SCENARIO 1 OR 3 ARE BECOMING MORE
PROBABLE. THIS CAN BE INFERRED THROUGH A PAINTBALL PLOT OF
REFLECTIVITY AND THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED, THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TRULY CAPTURE
THE LOCATION OF MOST LIKELY REDEVELOPMENT UNTIL WE SEE HOW THE
OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACTIVITY EVOLVES. FOR THIS REASON, THE
SCENARIOS DISCUSSED BEST REPRESENT POSSIBLE OUTCOMES.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE SCENARIOS ON
THE EXACT TIMING OF REDEVELOPMENT, STILL VARYING OVER A 2 TO 4
HOUR PERIOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS, ALL HAZARDS ARE PLAUSIBLE WITH ROUND 2 AS INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT FAVORS SUPERCELLS, BEFORE GROWING UPSCALE/CONGEALING
WITH TIME INTO A SQUALL LINE AND/OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THE
ENVIRONMENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AROUND 40 TO 50 KNOTS. AS FOR INSTABILITY, GUIDANCE
DEPICTS UPWARDS OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT TAKE ON SUPERCELL ATTRIBUTES WOULD
PREDOMINATELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL
CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7 C/KM. TO ADD CONTEXT TO THIS POTENTIAL, THE LARGE HAIL
PARAMETER DEPICTS VALUES AROUND 8 TO 12. RESEARCH SHOWS THIS
WOULD COINCIDE WITH TENNIS BALL OR HIGHER MAXIMUM HAIL SIZES.
ADDITIONALLY, ANY INITIAL SUPERCELLS WOULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH. AS FOR TORNADOES, THE POTENTIAL IS STILL
LOWER. HOWEVER, ANY SUPERCELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
DISCRETE AND AVOID NEGATIVE STORM INTERACTIONS WOULD NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS PROGGED TO REMAIN LOW INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MO THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, WITH
SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY IN NATURE. THIS SETUP KEEPS THE RISK
FOR TORNADOES LOWER IN OUR AREA, WITH THE CONDITIONS BECOMING
MORE FAVORABLE JUST EAST.
WITH THAT BEING SAID, THE EXPECTATION IS FOR ANY INITIAL
SUPERCELLS TO QUICKLY CONGEAL ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SLIDES
SOUTH AND EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS INTRODUCES THE
POTENTIAL FOR FAVORABLE STORM INTERACTIONS TO SUPPORT A
TORNADO, THOUGH STILL REMAINING LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM
EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE
EVOLUTION OF FEATURES ON THE MESOSCALE COULD HAVE BIG IMPACTS TO
THE FORECAST. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CLEARS THE THE AREA INTO
SUNDAY EVENING, WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
1. MONDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY, TEMPERATURES COOL BACK
INTO THE SEASONAL RANGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION WITH AREAS NEAR/ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS
BORDER REACHING LOW 60S. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DECREASING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
2. MONDAY NIGHT TEMPS & FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY, LOWS DIP INTO THE 30S, INTRODUCING THE
POTENTIAL OF FROST AND/OR A FREEZE SCENARIO. NBM DETERMINISTIC
CURRENTLY PROGS LOWS AROUND 40 DEGREES IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
HWY 65, WITH TEMPERATURES DECREASING INTO THE MID-30S THROUGH THE
EASTERN OZARKS. AREAS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE OZARK AND SALEM
PLATEAUS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING FROST-SUPPORTING
CONDITIONS, WITH A 60-90% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES BELOW 37 DEGREES.
SREF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS, WITH SREF RIBBONS HOLDING CENTRAL
MISSOURI BETWEEN THE 36 AND 32 DEGREE CONTOURS. HOWEVER, A HARD
FREEZE SEEMS UNLIKELY IN MOST AREAS, WITH LESS THAN A 15% CHANCE OF
TEMPS REACHING 32 DEGREES OR LOWER.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A SMALL BULLSEYE IN AND AROUND DENT COUNTY,
WHERE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WOULD DAM COLD AIR ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE ST. FRANCOIS MEETS THE
PLATEAU. MID-RANGE MODELS KEEP THE WINDOW OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
SHORT AND CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER, WHICH WOULD DECREASE THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. ON THE OTHER HAND, GUIDANCE HINTS AT A
BRIEF AND WEAK MESOHIGH FEATURE FLOATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND
LIGHT WINDS UNDER CLEARING SKIES SUPPORT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
SETUP, BOTH OF WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS FURTHEST EAST. MRCC'S LAST SPRING FREEZE
DATE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LAST SPRING FREEZE DATES IN OUR AREA BETWEEN
APRIL 5-14, SO THIS WOULD BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY ON TRACK AS WELL.
REGARDLESS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE EASTERN OZARKS AND THE SPINE
OF THE PLATEAU REACHING BETWEEN 32-37 DEGREES, WITH RAPID DECREASE
IN FROST RISK WITH WESTWARD EXTENT AND DECREASED ELEVATION.
ADDITIONALLY, IT'S WELL KNOWN THAT THE VARIABLE TERRAIN IN THOSE
AREAS OFTEN RESULT IN LOCALIZED PATCHES OF TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW SURROUNDING AREAS. WE WILL BEGIN ISSUING FROST AND
FREEZE HEADLINES ON APRIL 1, WHICH IS CONVENIENTLY TUESDAY MORNING.
ERGO, A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.
3. WINDS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
AS DEEP SYNOPTIC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL JET, WARMING US BACK
INTO THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. OUR POSITION ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC
WINDS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THE AREA WITH STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE AREAS FURTHEST WEST. THE "MOST LIKELY" WIND FORECAST RANGE IS
JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT CHANGES IN THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW, HOW FAST IT EJECTS OFF THE ROCKIES, AND ITS PATH COULD BE
JUST ENOUGH TO BUMP THEM OVER THE EDGE.
4. SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY
THE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES IS POISED TO PUSH ITS FIRST SHORTWAVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. A MOISTURE PLUME PUSHES INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY EVENING WHILE A BROAD, MOIST WARM SECTOR
SIMULTANEOUSLY BUILDS INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF GFS IVT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING THE MOISTURE PLUME OUT WEST OVERCOMING THE
MEXICAN PLATEAU AND LINKING UP TO REINFORCE THE ALREADY IMPRESSIVE
MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF PUSHING ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEW POINTS POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS MID-
60S, A SEVERE SETUP SEEMS RIPE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. HOWEVER,
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR NORTH
MAY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE STORMS WOULD INITIATE,
WHICH WOULD CONFINE THE SEVERE THREAT TO OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
AND KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.
DESPITE SEVERAL DIFFERENT FACTORS THAT COMPOUND THE UNCERTAINTY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEVERE RISK TO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY, IT IS A
CLASSIC SPRINGTIME SEVERE WEATHER SETUP, WITH MANY SIMILARITIES TO
THE RECENT MARCH 14 EVENT. SPC HAS A 15% DAY 5 SEVERE WEATHER RISK
FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE WARM SECTOR (EQUIVALENT TO A SLIGHT RISK, OR
LEVEL 2/5 THREAT) AND A 30% SEVERE WEATHER RISK (EQUIVALENT TO AN
ENHANCED RISK, OR A LEVEL 3/5 THREAT) THAT BARELY CLIPS OUR
SOUTHEASTERNMOST COUNTIES. DETAILS, INCLUDING POTENTIAL HAZARD TYPES
AND EXACT IMPACTS TO THE OZARKS, WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR IN THE
COMING DAYS.
5. HYDRO THREATS WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM WILL
STALL/BECOME STATIONARY EITHER RIGHT OVER OUR AREA OR JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE TROPICS JUST KEEPS COMING AROUND THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH, AND WITH A STALLED
STATIONARY FRONT, SOME SIMILARITIES TO MADDOX FLASH FLOOD PATTERNS
ARE APPEARING IN GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKING TO STALL SOUTH OF US, THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WOULD STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA WITH IT. HOWEVER, THIS THREAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN COMING FORECAST UPDATES, AS THE
LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT STALL-OUT WILL NOT NEED TO SHIFT
NORTH VERY MUCH TO CREATE A FLASH FLOODING EVENT IN THE EASTERN
OZARKS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KS EARLY
THIS EVENING. STILL WAITING FOR THE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT, BUT THIS SHOULD HAPPEN BY LATE THIS EVENING AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. CAMS ARE
BRINGING CONVECTION TO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 06 AND 10Z AND
LINGERING FOR A FEW HOURS. MAY SEE SOME MVFR WITHIN THE
CONVECTION AND AFTER FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LEADING UP TO AND DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...CAMDEN
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
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