794
FXUS63 KSGF 301141
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
641 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ROUND 1 OF SEVERE WEATHER (SLIGHT RISK 2 OF 5) WILL WRAP UP
THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
UP TO 60 TO 70 MPH IS THE MAIN HAZARD.
- ROUND 2 OF SEVERE WEATHER (ENHANCED RISK 3 OF 5) WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AREAS MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY INCLUDING LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH, AND A TORNADO OR TWO.
SIGNIFICANT HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALLS OR LARGER WITH ANY
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.
- BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S ON
MONDAY NIGHT, CREATING A FROST RISK, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
OZARKS.
- WINDS WILL GET GUSTY AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
- PERIODS OF ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE NEXT
WEEK AND INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
ROUND 1 OF SEVERE WEATHER (SLIGHT RISK) WRAPPING UP THIS MORNING:
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS QUICKLY MOVING ITS WAY THROUGH WEST
MISSOURI AS OF 230 AM. BY THE TIME THIS AFD IS OUT, THE LEADING
LINE WILL LIKELY BE EXITING THE SPRINGFIELD AREA, DISSIPATING AS
IT MOVES NORTHEAST. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE OCCURRING WITH THIS
LINE, ESPECIALLY WITH THE WNW-ESE ORIENTED BAND MOVING NNE INTO
WEST-MISSOURI. IN FACT, A 79 MPH WIND GUST WAS REPORTED BY THE
JOPLIN ASOS. OTHERWISE, THE SOUTHEAST EXTENT OF THE COMPLEX IS
EXHIBITING A WEAKENING TREND AS THE LEADING LINE BECOMES MORE
CELLULAR, ADVECTING BACK UNDER AN OUTFLOW DOMINANT COLD POOL.
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WITH THAT SEEMS TO BE LIMITED INSTABILITY,
AND POTENTIALLY UNIFORM SHEAR ABOVE THE 1 KM LAYER. LATEST VAD
AT SGF DEPICTS 50 KTS OF 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR, WITH WINDS ABOVE 1
KM UNIFORM THROUGH 10 KM. IN OTHER WORDS, ALL THE SHEAR IS
WITHIN THE 0-1 KM LAYER, WITH EFFECTIVELY NO SHEAR IN THE 1-6
KM LAYER. IT COMES TO NO SURPRISE, THEN, THAT THE PART OF THE
COMPLEX PUTTING DOWN SEVERE WINDS IS WITH THE LINE COMPLETELY
PERPENDICULAR TO THE NNE ORIENTED 0-1 KM SHEAR VECTORS (AND BY
TRANSITIVE PROPERTY, THE 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS). SOME SMALL
COUPLETS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS LINE SEGMENT, WHICH POINTS
TO A CONTINUED LOW THREAT FOR BRIEF TORNADOES WITHIN THE LINE
SEGMENT, BUT RAP SOUNDINGS DEPICTING LESS THAN 25 J/KG OF 0-3 KM
CAPE MAY LIMIT ANY EFFECTIVE TORGEN. EXPECTATION IS FOR THE
COMPLEX TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TREKS EASTWARD, THOUGH WITH
JUST SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF MUCAPE AND 0-3 KM SHEAR, DAMAGING
WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS THAT GET GOING
WITHIN THE COMPLEX. BASED ON RADAR AND NEAR-TERM MODEL TRENDS,
MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE COMPLEX SHOULD BE DISSIPATED BY 7 AM.
ROUND 2 OF SEVERE WEATHER (ENHANCED RISK) THIS AFTERNOON:
MAIN TAKEAWAY FOR TODAY'S SEVERE THREAT IS THAT MODEL TRENDS,
ALONG WITH THE SPC OUTLOOK, HAS PUSHED THE SEVERE RISK LEVELS
FURTHER EAST, ALIGNING MORE WITH THE "WASH OUT" SCENARIOS
DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS AFDS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE
"WASH OUT" IS LESS DERIVED FROM THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA (LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTS A BIT
EARLIER DISSIPATION), AND MORE WITH A SLIGHT ACCELERATION OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. CAMS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL
SETUP PARALLEL, BUT SOUTHEAST OF, I-44 THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY
FROM A LINE FROM SALEM TO CASSVILLE. THIS LINES UP WITH THE
BOUNDARY OF SPC'S SLIGHT (2 OF 5) RISK. THE ENHANCED (3 OF 5)
RISK IS THEN A BIT SE, INCLUDING SHANNON, HOWELL, AND OREGON
COUNTIES.
WHILE THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF INITIATION HAS SHIFTED SE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS (BEST AREA IS ALONG AND SE OF THE SALEM TO
CASSVILLE LINE), THE EXPECTED STORM MODE/EVOLUTION AND MAXIMUM
HAZARDS REMAIN UNCHANGED, SAVE FOR A SLIGHTLY LOWER TORNADO
RISK. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY 2000-3000 J/KG
MLCAPE WITH 45-55 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. MUCH OF THE SHEAR IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL TO THE NE, CREATING ELONGATED AND RELATIVELY
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS RATHER MODEST IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE, WITH HREF MEAN STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY IN THE
SAME LAYER BELOW 100 M2/S2. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY. THESE POINT TO A LOWER TORNADO
RISK AND MORE OF A LARGE TO SIGNIFICANT HAIL RISK WITH ANY
SUPERCELL. RAP OUTPUTTING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT 7-8
C/KM WITHIN THE GOOD AMOUNT OF CAPE/SHEAR IS LEADING TO LARGE
HAIL PARAMETER VALUES AT 8-14. RESEARCH SHOWS THAT THIS LEADS TO
MAXIMUM HAIL SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS OR LARGER. 06Z HRRR MODEL
SOUNDINGS IN THE SHANNON/HOWELL/OREGON COUNTY REGION PULLS ONE
ANALOG OF 3 INCH HAIL FROM AN EVENT IN LOUISIANA, WITH 123 OTHER
LOOSE MATCHES, 91% OF THEM BEING SIGNIFICANT. THIS ALL INCREASES
CONFIDENCE THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 70 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS
CONGEAL INTO A LINE EARLY. AND A TORNADO OR TWO STILL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH ANY STORMS THAT EXPERIENCE FAVORABLE
INTERACTIONS.
THE BEST TIMEFRAME FOR INITIATION OF THESE STORMS LOOKS TO BE IN
THE 2-4 PM TIMEFRAME, WITH THE STORMS CLEARING OUT TO THE EAST
BY 5-7 PM. THIS LEAVES A SHORT 3-5 HOUR WINDOW FOR STORMS WITHIN
OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN CLEAR THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA, BRINGING
LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
LOTS OF WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. ACTUALLY VERY LITTLE HAS
CHANGED WITH THIS EXTENDED FORECAST, WITH THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS
BEING A MARGINAL (1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND WEST
OF I-49 TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THEN, INCREASING CONFIDENCE
IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ONWARD,
WITH HIGHER TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
LET'S BREAK IT DOWN:
FROST RISK MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS:
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY, TEMPERATURES COOL BACK
INTO THE SEASONAL RANGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION WITH AREAS NEAR/ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS
BORDER REACHING LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY, LOWS DIP INTO THE 30S, INTRODUCING THE
POTENTIAL OF FROST AND/OR A FREEZE SCENARIO. NBM DETERMINISTIC
CURRENTLY PROGS LOWS AROUND 40 DEGREES IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
HWY 65, WITH TEMPERATURES DECREASING INTO THE MID-30S THROUGH THE
EASTERN OZARKS. AREAS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE OZARK AND SALEM
PLATEAUS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING FROST-SUPPORTING
CONDITIONS, WITH A 60-90% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES BELOW 37 DEGREES.
SREF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS, WITH SREF RIBBONS HOLDING CENTRAL
MISSOURI BETWEEN THE 36 AND 32 DEGREE CONTOURS. HOWEVER, A HARD
FREEZE SEEMS UNLIKELY IN MOST AREAS, WITH LESS THAN A 15% CHANCE OF
TEMPS REACHING 32 DEGREES OR LOWER.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A SMALL BULLSEYE IN AND AROUND DENT COUNTY,
WHERE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WOULD DAM COLD AIR ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE ST. FRANCOIS MEETS THE
PLATEAU. MID-RANGE MODELS KEEP THE WINDOW OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
SHORT AND CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER, WHICH WOULD DECREASE THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. ON THE OTHER HAND, GUIDANCE HINTS AT A
BRIEF AND WEAK MESOHIGH FEATURE FLOATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND
LIGHT WINDS UNDER CLEARING SKIES SUPPORT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
SETUP, BOTH OF WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS FURTHEST EAST. MRCC'S LAST SPRING FREEZE
DATE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LAST SPRING FREEZE DATES IN OUR AREA BETWEEN
APRIL 5-14, SO THIS WOULD BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY ON TRACK AS WELL.
REGARDLESS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE EASTERN OZARKS AND THE SPINE
OF THE PLATEAU REACHING BETWEEN 32-37 DEGREES, WITH RAPID DECREASE
IN FROST RISK WITH WESTWARD EXTENT AND DECREASED ELEVATION.
ADDITIONALLY, IT'S WELL KNOWN THAT THE VARIABLE TERRAIN IN THOSE
AREAS OFTEN RESULT IN LOCALIZED PATCHES OF TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW SURROUNDING AREAS. WE WILL BEGIN ISSUING FROST AND
FREEZE HEADLINES ON APRIL 1, WHICH IS CONVENIENTLY TUESDAY MORNING.
ERGO, A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.
BREEZY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT:
AS DEEP SYNOPTIC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL JET, WARMING US BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND NEAR 80 F BY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, A
DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY, AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.
OUR POSITION ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE STRONGEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC WINDS IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, AND THE AREA WITH STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AREAS FURTHEST
WEST. THE "MOST LIKELY" WIND FORECAST RANGE IS JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT CHANGES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW, HOW
FAST IT EJECTS OFF THE ROCKIES, AND ITS PATH COULD BE JUST
ENOUGH TO BUMP THEM OVER THE EDGE.
SEVERE THREAT TUESDAY NIGHT:
50-80% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT AS A STRONG JET STREAK PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD. AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, THE SURFACE MASS RESPONSE
WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THESE WILL QUICKLY ADVECT IN
60-65 F DEWPOINTS, INCREASING INSTABILITY TO 1000-2000 J/KG
MUCAPE (ACCORDING TO GLOBAL MODELS, SO MORE IS LIKELY AS WE
CLOSE IN ON THE TIME). AS SUCH, GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A DRYLINE IN EAST-CENTRAL KS, WHICH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY, AND
INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THANKS TO THE STRONG JET NOSING IN,
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. CURRENTLY, THE SPC HAS A MARGINAL (1
OF 5) RISK ALONG AND WEST OF I-49. THIS WILL BE FURTHER
EVALUATED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT, BUT IT SEEMS LIKELY
THIS IS FOR THE DISSIPATION PHASE OF THE STORMS FROM EAST KS AS
THEY MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND ESCAPE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING.
SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY:
THE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES IS POISED TO PUSH ITS FIRST SHORTWAVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. A MOISTURE PLUME PUSHES INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY EVENING WHILE A BROAD, MOIST WARM SECTOR
SIMULTANEOUSLY BUILDS INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF GFS IVT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING THE MOISTURE PLUME OUT WEST OVERCOMING THE
MEXICAN PLATEAU AND LINKING UP TO REINFORCE THE ALREADY IMPRESSIVE
MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF PUSHING ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEW POINTS POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS MID-
60S, A SEVERE SETUP SEEMS RIPE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. HOWEVER,
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR NORTH
MAY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE STORMS WOULD INITIATE,
WHICH WOULD CONFINE THE SEVERE THREAT TO OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
AND KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.
DESPITE SEVERAL DIFFERENT FACTORS THAT COMPOUND THE UNCERTAINTY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEVERE RISK TO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY, IT IS A
CLASSIC SPRINGTIME SEVERE WEATHER SETUP, WITH MANY SIMILARITIES TO
THE RECENT MARCH 14 EVENT. SPC HAS A 15% DAY 5 SEVERE WEATHER RISK
FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE WARM SECTOR (EQUIVALENT TO A SLIGHT RISK, OR
LEVEL 2/5 THREAT) AND A 30% SEVERE WEATHER RISK (EQUIVALENT TO AN
ENHANCED RISK, OR A LEVEL 3/5 THREAT) THAT BARELY CLIPS OUR
SOUTHEASTERNMOST COUNTIES. DETAILS, INCLUDING POTENTIAL HAZARD TYPES
AND EXACT IMPACTS TO THE OZARKS, WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR IN THE
COMING DAYS.
HYDRO AND POTENTIAL SEVERE THREATS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT AFTER WEDNESDAY,
UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SETUP UP OVER OUR AREA WITH THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM BECOMING STATIONARY
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE TROPICS JUST KEEPS
COMING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH, AND
WITH A STALLED STATIONARY FRONT, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERTOP OF,
AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, AND SOME SIMILARITIES TO MADDOX
FLASH FLOOD PATTERNS APPEARING IN GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES, A
FLOODING THREAT BECOMES APPARENT FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA. IN FACT, WPC IS QUITE CONFIDENT IN HEAVY RAIN AND AN
ASSOCIATED FLOODING THREAT AS THEY HAVE ISSUED A DAY 5 MODERATE
(3 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR AREAS EAST OF US. THE
SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISKS CLIP OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE
STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKING TO STALL SOUTH OF US, THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WOULD STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA WITH IT.
HOWEVER, THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN
COMING FORECAST UPDATES, AS THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
STALL- OUT WILL NOT NEED TO SHIFT NORTH VERY MUCH TO CREATE A
FLASH FLOODING EVENT IN THE EASTERN OZARKS.
REGARDLESS OF A POTENTIAL FLOODING THREAT EVOLVING, CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING IN IT BEING QUITE WET ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. NOTABLY, POPS ARE ALREADY AT 70-90% FRIDAY
NIGHT. OUR CURRENT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNT FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IS 2 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS,
UNDERSTANDABLY, TO THE SOUTH. SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD COME WITH
THESE ROUNDS OF RAIN AS THE CSU MACHINE LEARNING MODELS DEPICT
OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA, BUT WITH THEY CURRENT FORECAST
SYNOPTIC LAYOUT, ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE ELEVATED AND
ISOLATED.
LASTLY, WITH A UNIFORM FLOW PATTERN, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
CONSISTENTLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY TO
SATURDAY PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
REMNANT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
TAF SITES AND WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST CELLS WILL HAVE DISSIPATED BY
14-15Z. IN ITS WAKE, MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN ALONG A
SAGGING COLD FRONT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE FEW AND SCT AT 700
FT FOR BOTH SGF AND JLN, BUT HAVE YET TO INCREASE THE THE BKN
CATEGORY. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW LONG THE LOWERED
CIGS WILL HOLD ON WITH LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING MVFR CIGS
THROUGH 04Z, THOUGH THESE COULD BE LOW COVERAGE CIGS. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY BY 18Z,
THOUGH WITHIN AND AROUND THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX, BRIEF PERIODS
OF VARIABLE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...PRICE
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