872
FXUS63 KSGF 010541
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1241 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S TONIGHT, INTRODUCING A
LOCALIZED FROST RISK, PARTICULARLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE
EASTERN OZARKS.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOCALIZED AREAS SEEING
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 45MPH.
- MARGINAL (1 OF 5) TO SLIGHT (2 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE THREAT IS CONDITIONAL ON STORM FORMATION, BUT ALL
HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING IN ADDITIONAL, POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.
- WE ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONCERNED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL MISSOURI.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
A PRETTY DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES CAN BE NOTED, INCLUDING ONE
APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND ONE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION.
A THIRD, MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER
BEGINNING MID WEEK.
THE MISSOURI OZARKS IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE, WHICH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE PUSHING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH YESTERDAY EVENING/NIGHT,
SKIES HAVE GRADUALLY CLEARED, AND NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
BETWEEN THE MID 40S (SW OF HWY 60) TO THE LOW TO MID 50S (N OF
HWY 60) AS OF 230 PM. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY CLIMB INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S (HIGHEST TOWARDS SOUTH-CENTRAL MO) THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS EAST, CALM SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT CLOCKWISE,
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY, WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THAT BEING SAID, WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN
PLACE, SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, AND THE SURFACE
WINDS REMAINING CALM, TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF SE KS AND
FAR SW MO, WHICH SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 40S. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES:
<40: 60-90% INCREASING EAST OF HWY 65
<36: 25-45% IN POCKETS OF THE EASTERN OZARKS
<34: <15% IN POCKETS OF THE EASTERN OZARKS
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS
IN THE EASTERN OZARKS. WITH THAT IN MIND, SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITHIN THESE LOCALIZED AREA (WHERE TEMPERATURES
CAN GET TO 36 DEGREES OR BELOW), SO CONTINUE TO BE MINDFUL OF PLANTS
AND CROPS IN VALLEYS ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING EASTWARD, REACHING
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION ON TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET
OF 140-160 KTS WILL INITIATE CYCLOGENESIS ON THE LEESIDE OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS (NE/CO/KS AREA) TUESDAY MORNING. THIS, COUPLED WITH
THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST, WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT, LEADING TO INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON
TUESDAY. CURRENTLY FORECASTING SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20-30MPH WITH
WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-40MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, A 65-75KT LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT, INCREASING THE WINDS EVEN FURTHER.
HERE ARE THE CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT:
>35MPH: 60-80% (HIGHEST WEST OF HWY 65)
>40MPH: 25-45% ALONG HWY 60 AND WEST OF HWY 65
>45MPH: 10-15% WEST OF HWY 65
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 45MPH (WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA), HOWEVER MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA,
SO DECIDED AGAINST ADVISORY ISSUANCE. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW
THINGS PROGRESS IN THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE.
WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION ONCE AGAIN, TUESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
NEAR AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
EAST OF HWY 65, AND THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ALONG/WEST OF HWY 65.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE CAN RETURN TO THE REGION, THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE COULD LEAD TO A DELAY IN MOISTURE RETURN,
LEADING TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WE'RE CONTINUING TO FORECAST
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30-40% RANGE, HOWEVER WE'LL
NEED TO CONTINUE ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER RHS IN THE
EASTERN OZARKS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT SEVERE RISK TUESDAY NIGHT:
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION, BRINGING DEWPOINTS IN THE 60-65
DEGREE RANGE. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PUSHING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE 65-75KT LOW LEVEL JET SPREADING INTO THE
AREA, INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE, WITH MODELS SHOWING MUCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG. THAT BEING SAID, THERE'S STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY, WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO DIFFER REGARDING THE
INSTABILITY AND CAPPING, SO TUESDAY NIGHT'S SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
CONDITIONAL.
A DETERMINING FACTOR IN THIS RISK WOULD BE IF STORMS CAN OVERCOME
THE CAPPING INVERSION AND INITIATE IN OK/KS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THE TIMING OF THE GREATER MOISTURE RETURN
WOULD LARGELY INFLUENCE STORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH A LATER, MORE
DELAYED ARRIVAL LEADING TO THE CAP REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. IF STORMS (SUPERCELLS) CAN DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, PUSHING EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR WESTERN CWA, THEY
WOULD POSE A SLIGHT (2/5) RISK FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER,
PRIMARILY WEST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR LATE TUESDAY EVENING. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THESE STORMS WOULD REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE,
HOWEVER IMPRESSIVE SHEAR, STRONG BUOYANCY, AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
WOULD SUGGEST A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
ADDITIONALLY, HREF SHOWS 0-1KM SRH OF 300-500 M2/S2, LEADING TO A
TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. EVEN FURTHER, THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO
PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN KS TOWARDS NW IA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. IF STORMS CAN/DO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT, WITH THE
FORCING OVERCOMING THE CAP, ELEVATED STORMS (OR POTENTIALLY A SQUALL
LINE) COULD PERSIST EAST OF I-49, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY
HAZARD. AGAIN, THIS THREAT IS PRETTY CONDITIONAL, SO WE'LL CONTINUE
MONITORING HOW THINGS PROGRESS. AS SUCH, SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
(2/5) RISK FOR THE WESTERN CWA (MARGINAL RISK [1/5] IN THE EASTERN
CWA), WITH A SMALL ENHANCED RISK (3/5) JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA
WHERE THE BETTER CHANCES EXIST.
ENHANCED SEVERE RISK WEDNESDAY:
ANOTHER CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ON WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF SPRINGFIELD WHERE SPC HAS AN ENHANCED (3/5) RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY, SREF CONTINUES TO SHOW A 50-70%
JOINT PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND 40KTS OF DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH 0-1KM SRH AT 150-250 M2/S2.
THE MORNING ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY INFLUENCE REDEVELOPMENT LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON (THEREFORE MAKING THIS MORE OF A CONDITIONAL THREAT),
HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP, ALL HAZARDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE, WITH
LARGE (TO POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT) HAIL, WIND, AND/OR TORNADOES
(DEPENDING ON THE STORM MODE). AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTIONED,
THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING COULD QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STALLS OUT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO THE COLD FRONT
SLOWING DOWN THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING THE WEAKER FORCING TO LEAD
TO MORE OF A DISCRETE STORM MODE (RATHER THAN A LINE). THIS IS STILL
BEING EVALUATED, SO STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST AS WE
CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON EXACT DETAILS.
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THURSDAY:
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEAST, THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
STALL, BECOMING STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WE COULD SEE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY LEADING TO MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION, HOWEVER
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY, SPC
HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR FAR SOUTHEAST (OREGON COUNTY) IN A 15% DAY 4
RISK.
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POTENTIAL LATE THIS WEEK:
AFTER WEDNESDAY, WE SWITCH OUR FOCUS MORE TOWARDS THE INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THERE'S FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OCCURRING MIDWEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE HIGHEST CORRIDOR REMAINING TO OUR EAST, HOWEVER
THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT (AND THEREFORE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
CORRIDOR) REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THAT BEING SAID, WPC HAS ISSUED SEVERAL
DAYS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS, WITH A MARGINAL (1/4) TO SLIGHT
(2/4) RISK SOUTHEAST OF I-44 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (A MODERATE RISK
[3/4] EXTENDING FROM ARKANSAS UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY), AND A SLIGHT
(2/4) TO MODERATE (3/4) RISK ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44 ON FRIDAY.
THESE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PUT A STRAIN ON RIVERS
IN THE EASTERN OZARKS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON DETAILS AS WE
MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK, AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED
FOR A FLOOD WATCH, ESPECIALLY FOR THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME,
IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
CALM EASTERLY WINDS OBSERVED AT 06Z WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY
BY 10Z, AND INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BECOMING VERY GUSTY
AFTER 18Z. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 30-40
KTS CAN BE EXPECTED.
A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL THEN MOVE IN AFTER 00Z, BRINGING
STRONG LLWS AT 50-55 KTS. AS A HEADS UP, CURRENT FORECAST HAS
60-65 KTS OF LLWS AFTER THE END OF THE PERIOD (AFTER 06Z).
LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THERE'S A 20-30% CHANCE THESE BEGIN AFTER 04Z,
BUT GIVEN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND BEING NEAR THE END
OF THE PERIOD, HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW, TO BE RE-
EVALUATED WITH THE 12Z TAFS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...MELTO
AVIATION...PRICE
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