052
FXUS63 KSGF 011140
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
640 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS
AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
LOCALIZED AREAS SEEING OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
- MARGINAL (1 OF 5) TO SLIGHT (2 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE THREAT IS CONDITIONAL ON STORM FORMATION,
BUT HAIL UP TO PING PONGS, WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH, AND A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.
- SLIGHT (2 OF 5) TO ENHANCED (3 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ALONG AND EAST OF I-49 WEDNESDAY. HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLARS TO
TENNIS BALLS, WIND GUSTS UP TO 60-80 MPH, AND A FEW TORNADOES
WILL ALL POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THE UPPER END OF
THESE HAZARDS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 63.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. WE ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY CONCERNED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH- CENTRAL
MISSOURI. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL
DAYS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
THE "CALM BEFORE THE STORM" IS OCCURRING RIGHT NOW AND OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE IMPACTFUL WEATHER INCREASES ITS PRESENCE
LATER TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEK. BROAD ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
IS OVERTOP MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS IS BRINGING THE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALMER EASTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. AS
SUCH. WE'VE SEEN TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND 40 F, WITH AREAS IN
THE EASTERN OZARKS ALREADY DOWN IN THE MIDDLE 30S. WITH ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS OF COOLING, LOCALIZED AREAS OF FROST ARE STILL
POSSIBLE IN THESE COLDER AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS.
NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS EXPECTED, THOUGH.
BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
MEANWHILE, THE NOSE OF A 120-140 KT UPPER-LEVEL JET IS JUST
COMING OFF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT RANGE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THE PLAINS ALREADY SHOW DEEP LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING
WITH THIS, AS A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EVIDENT
ACROSS ND DOWN SOUTH INTO KS. AS THE JET AND SURFACE LOW
PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY, THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TRANSLATE INTO OUR REGION, INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME INFREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 45-50
MPH MAY OCCUR, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS A 60-70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME SKEPTICISM IN JUST HOW MUCH
MIXDOWN CAN OCCUR WITH THAT TONIGHT. THIS UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES
ANY WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME, THOUGH ONE MAY BE
ISSUED LATER IF TRENDS APPEAR TO OVERACHIEVE THE CURRENT
FORECAST.
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT:
THE MASS RESPONSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING CYCLONE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL VERY QUICKLY ADVECT MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR
NORTHWARDS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AS A
RESULT. INITIALLY, THE GREATEST MOISTURE WILL BE WITHIN A NARROW
NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL KS. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH
OF THE RESULTING INSTABILITY OUT OF OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS THEN FORECAST
TO PIVOT EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT, PUSHING THE
TIMEFRAME FOR OUR SEVERE RISK TO THE LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING HOURS. OVERNIGHT, THERE WILL BE TWO WINDOWS
FOR CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISKS:
1. LATE EVENING UNTIL 4-5 AM WEDNESDAY:
CAMS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN OK/KS THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WOULD
THEN RACE NORTHEASTWARD. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION THESE STORMS
DEVELOP, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY ONE OR MORE OF THESE
SUPERCELLS CLIP OUR COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF I-49. IF THIS
SCENARIO PANS OUT, HREF SUGGESTS THE SUPERCELLS WILL OUTPACE
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY, THOUGH COULD STILL SURVIVE WITHIN AN
ADVECTING AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WITH THAT SAID, SHEAR
WILL BE NO PROBLEM TONIGHT WITH 50-70 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THEREFORE, IF ONE OF THESE STORMS
WERE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA, THEY WOULD BRING
HAZARDS OF HAIL UP TO PING PONG SIZE, AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH. THIS IS OF COURSE CONDITIONAL ON IF THESE STORMS DEVELOP IN
KS/OK, AND IF THEY DEVELOP IN A LOCATION WHERE THEIR STORM
MOTIONS GET CARRIED INTO OUR CWA.
2. EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING (STARTING 5-7 AM):
THIS RISK SHOULD REALLY BE A PART OF WEDNESDAY'S SEVERE RISK,
BUT SINCE SPC'S SEVERE OUTLOOKS GO OFF 24 HOUR PERIODS FROM 7 AM
TO 7 AM, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITHIN THE 5-7 AM TIMEFRAME IS
A PART OF DAY 1 (TUESDAY'S RISK). ANYWAY, THE GREATER MOISTURE
AXIS WILL PIVOT EAST INTO OUR WESTERN CWA AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD
PROGRESSING COLD FRONT AROUND 4-5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST
CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALREADY BE
OCCURRING WITH THIS FRONT AND WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST KS/WEST
MO BY 5-7 AM. ASSUMING ENOUGH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE LINE, SHEAR PROFILES WILL STILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS. WITH A LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AS THE
EXPECTED STORM MODE, DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH, HAIL UP TO
PING PONGS, AND A TORNADO OR TWO WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. THIS SECOND THREAT IS CONDITIONAL AS WELL, MAINLY BASED
ON THE DEGREE OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT SKINNY CAPE PROFILES WITH DIFFERING DEGREES OF
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. ADDITIONALLY, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
SLOWING DOWN AT THIS POINT, WHICH MAY PRODUCE TOO LITTLE FORCING
TO KEEP STORMS GOING IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY:
THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL EJECT OFF TO THE NE AND LEAVE THE JET
STALLED IN A SW-NE ORIENTATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW THE COLD
FRONT'S MOVEMENT AS IT TRAVERSES OUR CWA. ONCE AGAIN, THERE WILL
BE QUESTIONS ON COVERAGE OF ONGOING STORMS, IF ANY AT ALL.
HOWEVER, AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES AHEAD OF THE SLOW-MOVING
FRONT (HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S),
REDEVELOPMENT/REINTENSIFICATION OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT IS
POSSIBLE. WITH ELONGATED AND SLIGHTLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS STILL
CHARACTERIZING THE ENVIRONMENT, ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL HAZARDS. WITH A MORE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS, PEAK
HAZARDS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLARS TO PING PONGS, WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH, AND A TORNADO OR TWO NOT BEING RULED OUT.
THESE WOULD BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 63.
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR HIGHER COVERAGE IN SEVERE STORMS, AND MORE
IMPACTFUL HAZARDS WILL BE DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE MID-
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING EAST OF HIGHWAY 63. HREF CAMS ARE IN
AGREEMENT FOR A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS TO INITIATE STORMS
AHEAD OF THE INITIAL MORNING LINE. THIS WOULD BE EAST OF HIGHWAY
63. HERE, KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD BE MORE
IMPRESSIVE ALONG WITH MORE SUBTLE SURFACE FORCING. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FOR MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH HIGHER-END HAZARDS OF
HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALLS, WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WITHIN
HOWELL, SHANNON, AND OREGON COUNTIES AS EVIDENCED BY HREF MEAN
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING 30-40 KTS OF 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR AND 200-300
M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY.
MEANWHILE, THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF STORMS CONTINUING
ALONG/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT (WEST OF THE PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE
BAND), THOUGH HODOGRAPHS IN THIS REGION ARE STRAIGHTER,
SUGGESTING MORE OF A HAIL THREAT THAN ANYTHING ELSE.
ALL STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY 6-9 PM.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
GROWING CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING LATE THIS WEEK:
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES GET DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. THEN,
PERSISTENT 60-100% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STALLS
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA, AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS
MOVE OVERTOP THE BOUNDARY WITHIN STEADY-STATE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. >90TH PERCENTILE INTEGRATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE
PRESENT OVER OUR AREA DURING THIS ENTIRE PERIOD, KEEPING A
PERSISTENT SUPPLY OF GULF MOISTURE. THIS WILL BRING >99TH
PERCENTILE PWATS (1.25-1.75 IN) FOR MULTIPLE DAYS, ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MO. ALL THIS LEADS TO
THE INCREASING CONCERN FOR PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD LEAD
TO IMPACTFUL FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN OZARKS.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT MODELS ARE IN (TERRIBLY)
GOOD AGREEMENT ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT IS MINOR WOBBLES IN THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT, WHICH WOULD
SHIFT THE AXIS OF GREATEST RAINFALL NORTHWEST OR SOUTHEAST
SOME. AS AN EXAMPLE, FOR 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY 1 PM
THROUGH SATURDAY 1 PM, EVERY CLUSTER HAS A MEAN RAINFALL AMOUNT
OF 2.5-3.5 INCHES, THOUGH EACH CLUSTER DIFFERS SLIGHTLY IN THE
LOCATION OF THOSE AMOUNTS. A GEFS DOMINATED CLUSTER IS A BIT
SOUTHEAST, WHEREAS AN ENS/GEPS DOMINATED CLUSTER IS FURTHER
NORTHWEST. THESE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT IS CREATING
RAINFALL AMOUNT SPREADS (RATHER THAN SOME MODELS SAYING LOTS OF
RAIN AND SOME SAYING LITTLE RAIN). AS WE GET CLOSER, THESE
SPREADS ARE TIGHTENING. AS ANOTHER EXAMPLE, LAST NIGHT, WEST
PLAINS HAD A SPREAD OF 1 TO 7 INCHES FROM THURSDAY TO SATURDAY.
TODAY, THAT SPREAD IS NOW 3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH THE 3 INCHES FROM
FURTHER SOUTHEAST PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT, AND 6 INCHES FROM
FURTHER NORTHWEST PLACEMENT.
ALL THIS BEING SAID, PERSISTENT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE WPC HAS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITHIN A SLIGHT (2 OF 4)
RISK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN A MODERATE (3 OF 4) RISK
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THAT'S A LOT OF RAIN EXPECTED, WITH OUR
CURRENT FORECAST SHOWING 7-10 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL IN THIS
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY. THIS IS THE MEAN, THOUGH, WITH
CERTAINLY AREAS SEEING LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS. NEVERTHELESS, THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PROMOTE
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING IN SOME, IF NOT MANY, AREAS.
HEFS FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ON AN INCREASING TREND FOR RIVER
FLOODING IN THE EASTERN OZARKS. PARTICULARLY, ALLEY SPRING NOW
HAS A 35% CHANCE OF BREAKING MODERATE FLOOD STAGE, AND A 7%
CHANCE OF BREAKING MAJOR FLOOD STAGE (AND A 90% CHANCE OF GOING
ABOVE ACTION STAGE). THEREFORE WE ARE VERY CONFIDENT IN AT LEAST
ACTIONABLE FLOODING OCCURING. STAY UP TO DATE WITH CHANGES IN
THE FORECAST, AS ANY FURTHER SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH THE AXIS OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO CRITICAL FLOODING
IMPACTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD FROST POTENTIAL:
SINCE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED TO OUR SOUTHEAST,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S, WITH SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY IN THE 50S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN DROP TO THE 30S
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FROST TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE STARTING TO BECOME GUSTY AT ALL TAF
SITES. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD,
BECOMING VERY GUSTY AFTER 18Z. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 KTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 30-40 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED.
A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL THEN MOVE IN AFTER 03Z, BRINGING
STRONG LLWS AT 50-55 KTS, AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SURFACE WIND
GUSTS.
LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION AT THE SAME
TIME AS THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THERE'S A DECENT CHANCE
(30-60%) THAT THESE LAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A VERY CONDITIONAL AND LOW-END THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TO COME CLOSE TO THE JLN AIRPORT AFTER 04Z.
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS DEPICT AT LEAST ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING IN FROM OK/KS, BUT THE EXACT LOCATION WILL BE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE. IN THE OFF CHANCE THAT IT DOES IMPACT JLN, VERY LARGE
HAIL WILL BE A HAZARD.
LASTLY, A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND TIMING, SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...PRICE
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