884
FXUS63 KSGF 230512
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1212 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) WEST OF HWY 65 WEDNESDAY.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES (50-90%) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- SCATTERED RAIN LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF CONSISTENT RAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO RESULT IN FLOODING IMPACTS, PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION WHERE MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND CURRENT CONDITIONS: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW A QUICK ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS WITH BROAD WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.,
INCLUDING THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. POLAR JET WAS
LOCATED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND, WHILE A
SUBTROPICAL JET WAS FROM THE BAJA REGION INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. AT
THE SURFACE, A DRYLINE EXTENDED SOUTHWEST OF A LOW IN SOUTHWEST
KANSAS INTO WEST TEXAS, WHILE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW IN KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS. EARLY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT: NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON...ONLY SOME THIN CIRRUS. WE SHOULD WARM INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRYLINE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. A FEW OF THE STORMS THAT
SURVIVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAY MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH OF OUR
CWA, BUT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS OUR CWA. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EAST TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S TO MILD IN THE WEST
WITH MID 50S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH OR TO OUR SOUTH, HOWEVER SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER OUR WESTERN CWA(15-50%). MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH LOWS FORM THE LOW 50S IN THE EAST TO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S IN THE WEST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO
THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME, GULF MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTH AND WE'LL SEE OUR PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1" TO 1.25".
SHEAR/CAPE PROFILES NOT OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS, BUT HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A RISK. WITH THE RECENT HEAVY
RAIN FLOODING THAT IS ONGOING FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND, ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE FLOODING.
WEEKEND: ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH POPS FROM(25% TO 65%) OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH A STRONG SURFACE
LOW. STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
EAST OF THE LOW, BUT THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
LOOKING OUTSIDE OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD
BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO TICK UP NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD OR AREAS ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...NELSON
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