155
FXUS63 KSGF 231030
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
530 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) WEST OF HWY 65 THIS
AFTERNOON.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES (50-90%) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- SCATTERED RAIN LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF CONSISTENT RAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO RESULT IN FLOODING IMPACTS, PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION WHERE MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
TUESDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS PRODUCED A FEW
HIGHER WIND GUSTS IN THE LAST FEW HOURS, BUT HAD LARGELY REMAINED
SUBSEVERE EAST OF WICHITA. AS THE STORMS APPROACH THE WESTERN
MISSOURI BORDER, THEY BEGIN TO LEAVE THE AREA BEST FORCED BY THE LOW
LEVEL JET AS WELL AS THE BETTER MOISTURE AND DIE OUT PRETTY QUICKLY.
THE AREA MOST AT RISK FOR SEEING A SHOWER OR STORM THIS MORNING
IS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AS IT LIES ALONG THE
RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. THAT BEING SAID, POPS HERE REMAIN
BELOW 50% THE ENTIRETY OF THE DAY. EAST OF ~I-49, POPS REMAIN
BELOW 20% TODAY.
WE'LL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASS BY. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW MEANS
ANOTHER WARM DAY, WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE
PRECIPITATION WILL HELP LOWS TO STAY WARM, IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO GET MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEGINNING IN THE WEST, WITH POPS IN
EXCESS OF 80% TAPERING DOWN TO AROUND 50% ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
CWA. RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME GOOD BREAKS IN
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF FORCING GETS ITSELF
TOGETHER. ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY, IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S, AS THESE PASSING SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE QUITE
DIFFUSE. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT STAY WARM, RIGHT AROUND 60.
THE INGREDIENTS ARE NOT THERE TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, THOUGH THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. THE GREATEST
CONCERN WITH THIS RAIN IS THAT IT WILL BE FALLING ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND DUE TO THE FLOODING EVENT OF LAST WEEKEND. THE WPC
HAS INCLUDED THE ENTIRE AREA IN THEIR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH HWY 65 AND WEST HIGHLIGHTED IN A
SLIGHT (2/4). POTENTIAL FLOODING IMPACTS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
A SURFACE TROUGH KEEPS RAIN GOING THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH 70-80% POPS
TO START THE DAY TAPERING OFF TO 30% OR LESS BY THE EVENING. MORE
SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, FORCING MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
A LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
PREFRONTAL ENERGY MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY, BUT THE BIGGER
SHOW LOOKS TO BE LATER ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS IS, OF COURSE, A
WHOLE WEEK AWAY, SO THE DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE. HOWEVER, THE SPC
HAS OUTLINED THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN A 15% RISK IN
THE DAY 7 OUTLOOK. MID-RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTICS AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM ALONG THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER. LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NELSON
LONG TERM...NELSON
AVIATION...NELSON
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