637
FXUS63 KSGF 231859
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
159 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) WEST OF HWY 65 THIS
AFTERNOON.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES (50-90%) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF CONSISTENT RAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO RESULT IN FLOODING IMPACTS, PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION WHERE MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED.
- MORE VIGOROUS STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND CURRENT CONDITIONS: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE CONUS. SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ARE EVIDENT: ONE OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH ANOTHER OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A
WEAKER DISTURBANCE WAS OVER CENTRAL INTO WEST CENTRAL MO AND WAS
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA. A BIT MORE ROBUST AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER CENTRAL KS AIDED BY SOME INCREASED LOW
LEVEL WINDS AND INSTABILITY TO OUR WEST. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S SO FAR WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 40S OUT EAST TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WEST.
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: SOME OF THE CAMS ARE
DEVELOPING SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER OUR WESTERN CWA WITH SOME
INSTABILITY THERE. THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION OVER KS SHOULD
REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE SGF CWA, BUT HAVE EDGED UP POPS
SLIGHTLY ON OUR NORTHERN BORDER(30-40%) DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHS ARE ON TRACK TO REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID TO UPPER
50S.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: EXPECTING MUCH OF THE MORNING TO BE
DRY ACROSS THE AREA, BUT COULD START TO SEE CONVECTION MOVING
INTO THE WEST BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AS BETTER MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CWA,
HOWEVER SHEAR IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY, BUT STILL FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING(30-75%). BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD TRACK SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO RETURN OVER THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE DAY. OUT
WEST, A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND AND INTO CALIFORNIA AND
WILL BE THE NEXT STORM PRODUCER OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY(20-55%) WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE WEST. OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE COME DOWN QUITE A BIT FOR THE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME, BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOODING IN LOCATIONS WITH REPEAT CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY
OVER AREAS WHICH RECEIVED THE MOST RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
WEEKEND.
MONDAY-TUESDAY STORM SYSTEM: THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH A SURFACE FRONT TO START PUSHING INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER
ENOUGH OF A SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO FOR A STRONG TO SEVERER
WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
FOR THE 18Z TAFS, MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE JLN TERMINAL AND HAVE
ADDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR 23Z-01Z. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE
CONVECTION THROUGH 18Z THU SHOULD BE NORTH OR WEST OF THE AREA
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND,
GENERALLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
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