244
FXUS63 KSGF 241708
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1208 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, PARTICULARLY AROUND THE QUAD STATE REGION. MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF CONSISTENT RAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO RESULT IN FLOODING IMPACTS, PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION WHERE MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED.
- MORE VIGOROUS STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
CURRENTLY, IN THE WESTERN PLAINS, A DOUBLE LOW PRESSURE FEATURE IS
FORCING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY, BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER, HIGH RES MODELS SHOW A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, PARTICULARLY
IN THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE SPARSE COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY, POPS
REMAIN LOW, UNDER 30%. WE'LL SEE FILTERED SUN TODAY, BUT MORE CLOUD
COVER BEGINS TO IMPINGE FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW, IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80.
THE TAIL END OF THE INVERTED TROUGH FORCING STORMS IN KANSAS RIGHT
NOW SWEEPS THROUGH THE OZARKS TONIGHT, BRINGING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
NORTH OF I-44, UP TO 60% THROUGH THE WEE EARLY HOURS OF FRIDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT IT ISN'T
LOOKING AS WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE PASSAGE OF THIS
BOUNDARY FINALLY BREAKS OUR SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES START TO COME DOWN A BIT. HIGHS IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL
STILL REACH NEAR 80 WHILE AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST, WHERE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE APPROACHES, WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW 70S. LOWS WILL BE
SIMILARLY VARIABLE, WITH LOW 50S IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 60 IN THE
SOUTH. WE'LL SEE A WIDESPREAD BREAK FROM RAIN OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
THOUGH WE MOVE INTO MORE OF A RIDGED PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND, UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BRINGING
PERIODS OF POTENTIAL RAIN FOR PRIMARILY AREAS WEST OF HWY 65. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THE WEEKEND IS SUNDAY MORNING WITH POPS 45-60%.
RAIN TOTALS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY HAVE CONTINUED TO COME DOWN AS
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAS DECREASED IN BOTH REALITY AND MODEL
WORLD. THE AREA OF MOST RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST RATHER
THAN NORTHWEST, AND THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE NOW RIGHT AROUND AN INCH
RATHER THAN 2+. THEY STEADILY DECREASE TO THE EAST TO AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE DISTRIBUTION OF RAIN IS LOOKING LESS AND
LESS UNIFORM WITH THE PULSE-Y, SCATTERED NATURE OF THESE STORMS.
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY (ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS) AS A DEEP LOW AND TROUGH SHOVE OFF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
WARM THINGS UP FOR MONDAY, AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MONDAY
EVENING WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.
THE PATTERN LOOKS ACTIVE THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. THE 6-10 DAY CPC
OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
FOR THE 18Z TAFS, STARTING TO SEE SOME CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN
CWA WHERE THE CUMULUS FIELD HAD DEVELOPED EARLIER IN THE
MORNING. FOR NOW, EXPECTING MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN
EAST OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE
FORECAST. COVERAGE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING DOESN'T LOOK
TO BE ENOUGH FOR ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BETTER
CHANCES FOR A PROB30 MENTION OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION,
BUT MAY SEE SOME MVFR AND BRIEF IFR WITHIN ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NELSON
LONG TERM...NELSON
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
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