162
FXUS63 KSGF 242340
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
640 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
- ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- MORE VIGOROUS STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND CURRENT CONDITIONS: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE CONUS. SHORTWAVES WERE EVIDENT WITHIN THIS FLOW OVER
OKLAHOMA, KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA, IDAHO AND ARIZONA. A LARGE SCALE
TROUGH WAS STILL OFF THE WEST COAST. CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WERE
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA AND DEW
POINTS HAVE CREEPED UP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: MORE INSTABILITY BASED
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED, PULSE-LIKE
CONVECTION. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND WE
SHOULD SEE POPS INCREASE IN OUR WEST LATE TONIGHT. WHILE THERE
MIGHT BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT: THE BULK OF THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY, WITH SOME LINGERING
CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE EAST AND SOUTH
ON FRIDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT AND UPPER WAVE CONTINUE PUSHING
THROUGH THE CWA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
SATURDAY - SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, SHIFTING INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY, BUT
WILL START TO SEE MOISTURE CREEP BACK INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA
LATE IN THE DAY, WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. WHILE MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY
WILL REMAIN DRY, AREAS IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA MAY HAVE SOME LOW
POPS(10-40%) DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY, WITH BEST CHANCES(30-60%) ON SUNDAY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY - TUESDAY: THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT,
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA.
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA
CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE 7 DAY PERIOD: WHILE
THE OVERALL QPF HAS COME DOWN FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE
AREA, THERE WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN CHANCES AS THE
ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH REPEAT
STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL LOOK TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE SW
CORNER OF MISSOURI MOVING NE. THESE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE BETWEEN
02-07Z. THERE WILL THEN BE A LULL AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH
TO THE NORTHWEST BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME POSSIBLE AGAIN BETWEEN 18-24Z.
THE SAME SORT OF COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THEN AS THERE IS NOW ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH A LOW CHANCE (30%) FOR A THUNDERSTORM
TO DIRECTLY IMPACT A TAF SITE.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE (50-70%) FOR JLN AND
BBG TO REACH MVFR BETWEEN 11-17Z, WITH A LOWER CHANCE (30-50%)
IN SGF DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...PRICE
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