273
FXUS63 KSGF 250811
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
311 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20-40%) THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (40-70%)
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSYEM. REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT TIMING,
LOCATIONS, AND HAZARDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT: SHORTWAVE ENERGY LINGERS OVER THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
FESTERING OVER THE AREA. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED
CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. AS
WE PROGRESS THROUGH SUNRISE, COVERAGE WILL DISSIPATE AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL TURN WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S,
WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
(20-40%) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN OZARKS. RECENT TRENDS IN CAMS
DEPICTS A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND CHANCES IN GENERAL. IF THIS
CONTINUES, ADDITIONAL NEAR TERM FORECAST UPDATES MAY SUPPORT A
DECREASE IN POPS. NONETHELESS, MANY LOCATIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOWS FALL INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 50S TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRANSLATING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES (40-70%) ARE FOCUSED ALONG AND WEST
OF HIGHWAY 65 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, AREAS FURTHER EAST
ARE EXPECTED TO SEE PLENTY OF DRY TIME, WITH 10-30% POPS. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE RATHER DULL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUPPORTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. NO
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. HIGHLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WHERE REPEATED ACTIVITY TRAINS OVER THE
SAME AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY REMAIN AROUND A
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH WEST OF HIGHWAY 65, TO A FEW TENTHS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 65. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH REMAIN
PLAUSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 49 CORRIDOR. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: AS WE PROGRESS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A STRONG
MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS ENERGY EJECTS OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR STRONG FORCING
ALONG A FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS PUTS THE
AREA IN A BROAD WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING IN AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY. MOST OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. WHILE THERE REMAINS SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR OVERNIGHT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVERLAPPING ACROSS THE AREA.
LREF JOINT PROBABILITIES OF MUCAPE > 500 J/KG AND BULK WIND
SHEAR > 30 KNOTS ARE 50-70% ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE ENTIRE AREA WITH A 15-29% SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK (EQUIVALENT TO A SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 5) FOR OVERNIGHT
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES
WITH REGARDS TO EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS, IN ADDITIONAL TO THE
EXACT HAZARDS. ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM'S PASSAGE, ESPECIALLY IF IT SLOWS DOWN INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: UNSETTLED WEATHER LINGERS THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BUILDS OVER THE AREA OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (40-60%) ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ENSEMBLES VARY ON THE DEPARTURE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IN MEANDERS OVER THE REGION. HIGHS REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, DEPICTED WITH A PROB30 GROUP. OTHERWISE, VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET INTRUDE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHORT LIVED AND DISSIPATE BY
LATE FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...PEREZ
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