668
FXUS63 KSGF 252340
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
640 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20-40%) THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (40-70%)
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM. REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT TIMING,
LOCATIONS, AND HAZARDS.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND CURRENT CONDITIONS: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WITH SOME RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH AXIS GOING
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WAS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER WEST CENTRAL MO ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
CAMS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
SHIFTING SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING(20-30%).
MID EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT: POPS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY
MID EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. STRATUS WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH LOWS
FROM THE LOW 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE MO/AR
BORDER.
SATURDAY - SATURDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SETTING BACK UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORTWAV ENERGY WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING BACK ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END ON SUNDAY MORNING.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP IN THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SEVERE STORMS MONDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY NIGHT: INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR,
HOWEVER WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK FAVORABLE WITH THE
FRONT IN THE NORTHWEST CWA MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CAPE/SHEAR
PROFILES, WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK LOOKS TO CONTINUE AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
A SPLIT FLOW LOOKS LIKE IT SETS UP ALOFT, WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FOR THE MID TO LATER PART OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN
AFTER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO SOME EXCESSIVE RAIN AND
FLOODING FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
HIGH CONFIDENCE (70-90%) THAT CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO AT LEAST
MVFR DURING THIS TAF PERIOD BEHIND A WEAK COLD FROPA,
PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE 08-18Z TIMEFRAME. THERE IS MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE (50-70%) IN CIGS DECREASING INTO IFR TERRITORY FOR
SGF AND BBG, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 09-16Z. A LOWER CHANCE EXISTS
FOR JLN TO DROP INTO IFR (20-30% CHANCE). THERE'S A 15-20%
CHANCE FOR SGF AND BBG TO DROP INTO LIFR BETWEEN 11-14Z. DURING
THIS TAF PERIOD, WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE, MAINLY OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TOWARDS
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...PRICE
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