906
FXUS63 KSGF 261055
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
555 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-80%) RETURN
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
LOW POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM. REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT TIMING,
LOCATIONS, AND HAZARDS.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY, WITH RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING THE HIGH. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH TODAY,
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING THROUGH BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID- LEVELS.
A BIT COOLER TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER LINGERING BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON REACH INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE
DRY BEFORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. RECENT CAMS SUGGEST A MCS TO DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND A MCV ACROSS
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDS SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY AS IT LIFTS EAST/NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS VICINITY. NONETHELESS, IT IS LIKELY
TO STILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. IT
APPEARS ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES WILL ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
REMAIN PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS IN PLACE FROM
PREVIOUS RAINFALL. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FLOODING IN NOT
ANTICIPATED WITH GENERAL AMOUNTS LIMITED TO A HALF INCH TO AN
INCH. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY APPROACH 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES AS
DEPICTED IN POCKETS BY THE HREF LPMM.
SUNDAY: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY COME TO AN
END THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DRIVEN BY HOW QUICKLY CLOUD
COVER CLEARS THE AREA. WHERE CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO CLEAR IN THE
AFTERNOON, HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
IF CLOUDS DO CLEAR QUICKER, HIGHS QUICKLY REACH INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
MONDAY-TUESDAY: BY MONDAY, STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERSPREADS
THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION STREAMING
NORTHWARD. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 80S AS A
LARGE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS SOAR INTO LOWER 60S. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH INSTABILITY AND
STRONG SHEAR. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT
RISK (2 OF 5), WHILE THE ENHANCED RISK (3 OF 5) IS ON THE
NORTHWEST FRINGES OF THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME
REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES ON EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF
GREATEST THREATS, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT A BROKEN LINE
AND CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. WHILE ALL HAZARDS REMAIN
PLAUSIBLE, THE SETUP WOULD FAVOR WIND AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY
THREATS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE BETTER RESOLVED OVER THE COMING
DAYS AS WE HONE IN THE DETAILS AND CAMS BEGIN TO PAINT THE FULL
PICTURE. ADDITIONALLY, AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WOULD REMAIN A CONCERN GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AND CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: THE TROUGH SUPPORTING BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
EVENTUALLY LIFTS EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO MID-WEEK,
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (60-80%)
PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL FURTHER
AMPLIFY THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK AS AREAS SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
PATTERN BREAKS INTO NEXT WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY PROVIDING SOME
RELIEF FROM AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 1500 TO 2500 FEET THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS RETURN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING. MVFR TO
IFR CEILING ENVELOPE THE AREA TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECTED REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WITHIN THE ACTIVITY.
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME EASTERLY TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS,
BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...PEREZ
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