517
FXUS63 KSGF 270800
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
300 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING, BEFORE DISSIPATING AND SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.
- SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5) FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY, LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
INCREASE WITH REPEATED ROUNDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
THIS MORNING-TONIGHT: RADAR DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE MORNING,
BEFORE TAPERING OFF INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL FEW
TENTHS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR, ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY STRONGER
CELLS PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ACTIVITY DIMINISHES TO THE
EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT, CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
ADVANCEMENT OF CLOUDS BREAKING/CLEARING TO THE EAST WILL PLAY A
KEY ROLE IN THE WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI, TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO CLEAR,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER IN THESE AREAS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA,
THOUGH CHANCES REMAIN LOW (10-20%). BREEZY CONDITIONS BUILD INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
MONDAY: WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO STREAM LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS, WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
25 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S,
TO PERHAPS EVEN MIDDLE 80S IF STRONG ENOUGH MIXING IS REALIZED.
DEWPOINTS PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AS THE AREA BECOMES
ENVELOPED IN A BROAD WARM SECTOR OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL BE DRIVEN BY
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE DRAPED SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF RICH
MOISTURE. INITIAL THOUGHT IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING,
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST WITH THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WELL OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA, THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS OR A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS REMAINING UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXTENT
OF COVERAGE INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE AREA AS A STOUT CAP MAY INHIBIT FURTHER PROGRESSION/DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, IF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OFF THE FRONT WITH A DEVELOPING
COLD POOL, ACTIVITY MAY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
MONDAY. THIS REMAINING UNCERTAINTY WILL BE BEST CAPTURED WITH
CAMS AND THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT. PRIMARY HAZARDS WOULD BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
TUESDAY: BY TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO SLOWLY STALL ACROSS THE AREA. THERE REMAINS SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT TIMING, BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR PROFILES. THUS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 5) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY WILL REINTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: BY MID-WEEK, THE TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. MEANWHILE, WITH RICH
MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED BY A LOW- LEVEL JET INTO THE AREA,
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHILE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED WITH THE MID- WEEK ACTIVITY, THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING INCREASE. THIS IS CHARACTERIZED BY
SATURATED SOILS AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST ONE
TO TWO WEEKS. THUS, RUNOFF WILL INCREASE AS AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS BECOME SWOLLEN. WPC CAPTURES THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH
A SLIGHT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS (2 OF 4) ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AXIS LINES UP, AS THIS WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE POSITIONING OF THE
STALLED FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 44. NBM 72 HOUR (MONDAY-THURSDAY) PROBABILITIES
DEPICT THE FOLLOWING:
PROB OF > 0.5 INCH: 80-100%
PROB OF > 1.0 INCH: 70-90%
PROB OF > 2.0 INCH: 40-70%
PROB OF > 3.0 INCH: 10-40%
ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON TIMING, AMOUNTS, AND LOCATIONS WILL BE
BETTER RESOLVED OVER THE COMING DAYS.
NEXT WEEKEND: ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS INTO NEXT WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY PROVIDING SOME
RELIEF FROM AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE
COVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A PROB30 GROUP DEPICTING
THE LOW CHANCES. MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 1500 TO 2500 FEET BUILD
INTO AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BY
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...PEREZ
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