182
FXUS63 KSGF 280602
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
102 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5) FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY, LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
INCREASE WITH REPEATED ROUNDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY MAY
BE ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THESE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY
65. OVERALL CHANCES ARE LOW AND IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED SO MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
LIFT IN SPOTS FOR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE
CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR LATE MORNING/MID DAY ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WARMER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. HIGHS
MAY REMAIN UPPER 70S TO CLOSER TO THE 80 DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE
FAR WEST IF MORE CLOUD COVER OCCURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND LIFT NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW. WINDS GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES ON MONDAY. THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH AT TIMES IF ENOUGH MIXING
CAN OCCUR.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST A FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A STRONG CAP WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY THEREFORE, MUCH OF
THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING UNDER THE CAP BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST AND NORTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE CAP WILL
START TO WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE FRONT APPEARS TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, IF STORMS CAN
MOVE OFF THE FRONT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ACROSS
THE WEST AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
THE STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP. COVERAGE IN STORMS COULD START
TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IF A COLD
POOL DEVELOPS WITH THE STORMS TO THE NORTH AND THEY SURGE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. IF A COLD POOL DOES NOT DEVELOP MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH COVERAGE IN STORMS THEN INCREASING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND RISK
WITH THE STORMS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS TO REMAIN ON THE WEAKER
SIDE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY AND WILL THEN LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT STALLS
AND HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT LIFT ON WEDNESDAY. AN UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE FRONT SO IF THE FRONT
LIFTS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD
BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AGAIN THE
MAIN RISK.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
FRONT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
RAIN OCCUR. AGAIN THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT
FRONT LOCATIONS AND THEREFORE THE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN OCCURS
EACH ROUND.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. SHOWER AND A FEW STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BUT THE
RAINFALL RATES SHOULD BE LESS WITH THE RAIN ON THURSDAY.
LOCATIONS SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FROM MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
WILL HAVE A FLOODING RISK INTO THURSDAY WITH THIS ADDITIONAL
RAIN. DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK BRINGING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IS
EXPANDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS,
IMPACTING KSGF AND KBBG BUT NOT REACHING AS FAR WEST AS KJLN
WHERE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. SOUTHERLY AND INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 30 KTS AT TIMES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
KJLN TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, REMAINING ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS UNDERNEATH A 50-60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONCERNS DECREASE AS THE JET MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTH.
AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE EXPANDING OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUILD-DOWN STRATUS COULD CAUSE
INTERMITTENT, LOCALIZED DENSE FOG AND LIFR CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONG WINDS WILL HELP TO WORK
AGAINST THIS, WHICH KEPT REDUCED VISIBILITIES OUT OF PREVAILING
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE MORNING
HOURS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...CAMDEN
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