173
FXUS63 KSGF 280900
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
400 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5) FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
- CONCERN IS INCREASING ABOUT FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A WIDESPREAD SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK WITH AN EMBEDDED MODERATE (LEVEL 3 OF
4) RISK FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SW MO AND SE KANSAS BOTH DAYS.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
INCREASE WITH REPEATED ROUNDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A LOW
STRATUS DECK EXPANDING NORTHWARD FROM ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN
PROGRESSIVELY BUILDING DOWN, CAUSING BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
TO AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE PLATEAU. WINDS
HAVE BEEN GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH AND INCREASING AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES, WHICH IS WORKING AGAINST WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS, UNDER THIS CLOUD DECK CEILINGS ARE NEAR
THE GROUND, SO A MISTY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 13 CORRIDOR INTO THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP.
MOST OF TODAY'S FORECAST WILL RIDE HEAVILY ON THE DEVELOPMENT
AND EVOLUTION OF CLOUD COVER. LESS CLOUD COVER = MORE SUNLIGHT
REACHING AND HEATING THE GROUND, WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE
FOLLOWING FORECAST ELEMENTS OF INTEREST:
1. TEMPERATURES:
WILL HAVE HELP FROM STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION, WITH HIGHS TODAY
EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID-80S. WARMEST TEMPERATURES FURTHEST
EAST, WHERE THERE WILL BE THE MOST BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER DURING
PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING.
2. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING:
OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER TRAPPED UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION (SEE
00Z SOUNDING) KEEP THE NOCTURNAL STABLE BL SHALLOW, WHICH WILL
MAKE IT EASIER FOR ENTRAINMENT TO GET THE MIXED LAYER GOING
EARLIER IN THE DAY. AS CLOUDS BECOME ERODED FROM THE TOP
DOWNWARDS DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, THE CIN THAT WAS BUILT UP
FROM NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION WILL BE OVERCOME AS AIR BECOMES
NEGATIVELY BUOYANT AND SINKS. THIS WILL WORK AGAINST THE CAP
THAT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD CONVECTION OFF ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON.
3. WINDS:
THE MORE WE WARM, THE WINDIER IT WOULD GET. WINDS 15-25 MPH AND
GUSTS UP TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE STRONGER WITH NORTHWESTWARD
EXTENT, WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE
TIGHTEST.
4. CONVECTION/RAIN/STORMS:
OUR FORCING FOR STORMS/CONVECTION IS ACTUALLY QUITE WEAK, WITH
THE DOMINANT COLD FRONT STAYING WELL WEST OF US TODAY AND THE
ONLY SYNOPTIC DYNAMIC FORCING AVAILABLE BEING STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION. A DRYLINE FEATURE WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
IT'S QUITE SUBTLE WITH MODEL PROGS ONLY HAVING ~5 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE IN DEW POINTS FROM THE WEST SIDE TO THE EAST SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE STARTING TO CATCH ONTO
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, WHICH IMPROVES CONFIDENCE THAT
IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE INITIATION. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE IN #2, CAPPING THAT WOULD PREVENT THE
REALIZATION OF MLCAPE 1500-2000+ J/KG COULD BECOME MINIMAL TO
NONE.
EXPECT INITIATION TO OCCUR NEAR THE DRYLINE FEATURE IN AREAS OF
STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH COVERAGE
WOULD BE RELATIVELY SCATTERED. MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY. BIGGEST
THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT COULD BECOME ORGANIZED WOULD BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, THOUGH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SRH
ASSOCIATED WITH A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET COULD HELP STORMS
BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST
AND REACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE TONIGHT, WHICH WILL
PERSIST AND KEEP WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES (70-90%) IN THE
FORECAST INTO TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN OUR AREA TUESDAY MORNING,
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO COME WITH
IT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA, BUT WILL BE
QUITE SLOW MOVING, AND EVENTUALLY STALL NEAR THE
ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER. THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT
FOR CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH STORMS POTENTIALLY
TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
IN THIS SAME AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
PERSISTENT RAINFALL BRINGS THE THREAT OF FLOODING BACK INTO THE
SPOTLIGHT, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST FLOOD RISK
EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED IN FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI ON TUESDAY
AND ALONG THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. THESE AREAS
ARE IN A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK FROM
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
RESPECTIVELY. BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI, AND MUCH OF
THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR IN HEAVY BUT SHORTER BURSTS, WHICH
WOULD INCREASE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
ADDITIONAL FACTORS TO CONSIDER RELATING TO FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
INCLUDES ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND ELEVATED STREAMFLOWS,
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW VALUES OVER THE REGION, AND THE KNOWN
VULNERABILITY TO FLOODING IN THE AREAS THAT WILL BE HEAVIEST-
HIT. A FLOOD WATCH WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE NECESSARY IN A FUTURE
FORECAST PACKAGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK BRINGING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IS
EXPANDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS,
IMPACTING KSGF AND KBBG BUT NOT REACHING AS FAR WEST AS KJLN
WHERE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. SOUTHERLY AND INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 30 KTS AT TIMES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
KJLN TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, REMAINING ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS UNDERNEATH A 50-60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONCERNS DECREASE AS THE JET MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTH.
AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE EXPANDING OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUILD-DOWN STRATUS COULD CAUSE
INTERMITTENT, LOCALIZED DENSE FOG AND LIFR CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONG WINDS WILL HELP TO WORK
AGAINST THIS, WHICH KEPT REDUCED VISIBILITIES OUT OF PREVAILING
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE MORNING
HOURS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAMDEN
LONG TERM...CAMDEN
AVIATION...CAMDEN
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