931
FXUS63 KSGF 141754
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1254 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. DAILY HIGHS IN THE 80S, WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM AND HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN UNSETTLED WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS INCLUDES
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION
TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
IN THE EXACT DETAILS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
AN UPPER RIDGE IS MOVING EAST OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN OZARKS THIS MORNING
BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS TODAY,
LIKELY REMAINING EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 IF NOT CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 63.
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AT TIMES UNDER THESE
LOW CLOUDS AS LIFT FROM THE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS TODAY. THE
WARMER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TODAY
FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MORE CLOUD COVER OCCURRING OVER THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI TO THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND WILL BE GUSTY
AT TIMES WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
THE WARMER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY BUT
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. A STRONG CAP IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL LIMIT
THE SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD WARM LOWS THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE WARM AIR MASS IS IN PLACE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY THEN WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND STALL
SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY, THEN AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST FRIDAY A FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG CAP WILL
BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH THE DAY ON THURSDAY, BUT THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW THE CAP WEAKENING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND
COULD FORM INTO THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN RISK THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT IS
WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT COULD REMAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. IF THE FRONT
STALLS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
GAINESVILLE TO EMINENCE MISSOURI LINE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BE IMPACTED BY THIS ACTIVITY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES EAST A FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
INSTABILITY WILL THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY ALONG
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED STORMS WILL
LIKELY INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT A COLD POOL COULD DEVELOP WITH THE STORMS
RESULTING IN A MCS DEVELOPING. THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FRONT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 AND ESPECIALLY EAST
HIGHWAY 63.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AND THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND
AND WILL LIFT THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN MOVES EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AT TIMES. IT WILL NOT RAIN THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD AS THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE RAIN AT TIMES BETWEEN
AND THE ACTIVITY COULD BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH MANY OF THE
ROUNDS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE 80S. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS
WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOOK FOR
LLWS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MAY 14:
KSGF: 88/2018
KJLN: 92/1947
MAY 15:
KSGF: 87/1957
KJLN: 89/1911
KUNO: 87/1957
MAY 16:
KJLN: 89/2001
KUNO: 88/2012
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MAY 14:
KSGF: 66/1911
MAY 15:
KSGF: 67/1941
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...TITUS
CLIMATE...WISE
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