155
FXUS63 KSGF 151025
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
525 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. DAILY HIGHS IN THE 80S, WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH
MAXIMUM AND HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY.
- SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE (20 TO 30%) MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 63 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN RISK.
- THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER ON
FRIDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.
- THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS INCLUDES THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
THE EXACT DETAILS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
A WARM AIR MASS IS OVER THE REGION AS EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO BUT WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. A FRONT
IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AND OUT OF
THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. A STRONG CAP IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION, AND WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL STORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER, THE CAP
WILL START TO WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, LIKELY OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA. SO, IT'S POSSIBLE THE CAP
WEAKENS ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO START DEVELOPING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF HIGHWAY 63, AND IF THE FRONT IS FURTHER EAST
WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS IT'S ALSO POSSIBLE STORMS DEVELOP EAST OF
THE CWA.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ONCE THE CAP WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHICH COULD
BE AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 63 WITH THE BETTER POTENTIAL EAST OF
THE AREA. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SCATTERED IN NATURE AS THE CAP MAY NOT FULL ERODE. MLCAPE
VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50 TO 60KTS
WILL BE IN PLACE SUPPORTING A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WITH ANY ACTIVITY ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE TORNADO RISK WILL
BE LOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS ON THE
WEAKER SIDE.
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING THEN
WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS A 20
TO 30% CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
BUT THE OVERALL BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND
WILL PUSH THE FRONT BACK TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WILL ALSO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AS MLCAPE VALUES VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG WILL BE IN
PLACE AGAIN WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50 TO 60 KT. THE CAP
SHOULD WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA BUT THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS ON
WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND JUST HOW QUICKLY. IT IS POSSIBLE
STORMS START TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AND ALSO POSSIBLE STORMS DON'T DEVELOP UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA CLOSE TO HIGHWAY 65 TO THE
EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
BASEBALLS WILL BE MAIN RISKS WITH THE STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP, IF
THEY DEVELOP A COLD POOL AS THE STORMS PUSH EAST THE DAMAGING
WIND RISK WILL INCREASE. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THE STORMS
DEVELOPING INTO A LINE IS EAST OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
START OFF WEAK AND WILL START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES. IT'S POSSIBLE THE STORMS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE
THE JET KICKS IN. THERE WILL BE A TORNADO RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS AND ON TO THE EAST.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI BEHIND THE
FRONT TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S AS A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO POSSIBLY THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY
AS THE FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT. THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN RISK ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND FRONT REMAINING EAST OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE STORMS DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND
MOVE EAST INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION. THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODEL MEMBERS
ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THEREFORE FOR
ON THE EXACT DETAILS, SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.
SOME LIGHT RAIN MAIN LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
A FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
OCCUR WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATER
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MO EAST OF THE TAF SITES. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA DRY, COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
ALONG THE FRONT BUT MOST LOCATION WILL REMAIN DAY. THERE IS A
LOW CHANGE FOR SOME SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MO AND
THE EASTERN OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THIS ACTIVITY
CAN DEVELOP IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MAY 15:
KSGF: 87/1957
KUNO: 87/1957
MAY 16:
KUNO: 88/2012
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MAY 15:
KSGF: 67/1941
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
CLIMATE...WISE
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