125
FXUS63 KSGF 152315
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
615 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE (30 TO 50%) THROUGH THIS
EVENING MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BRANSON TO SALEM.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN RISKS.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY, MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. VERY LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
SOFTBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 80 MPH, AND TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
- THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS INCLUDES THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
THE EXACT DETAILS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT: THE CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED AND IS SO FAR STAYING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. THE
SOUTHERN CWA DOES HAVE INSTABILITY AND A WEAKENING CAP, SO WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THAT AREA. SPC
ANALYSIS SHOWS 2,500-3,000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH AROUND 50-100
J/KG OF MLCIN AND 50-60 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ANY CONVECTION
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT CAN PUSH NORTH MAY QUICKLY BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO THREAT IS VERY LOW
GIVEN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT SOME ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION (POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE) DEVELOPS NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT, BUT EXPECTATION IS FOR THAT TO STAY
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART.
FOR FRIDAY: THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT IN THE MORNING AS A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100-120 KT UPPER JET
PUSH INTO THE AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW (SW 850MB JET OF 40-50
KTS) WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE AREA, WHICH WILL PUSH WARM, MOIST
AIR INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
CAMS SHOW CONVECTION INITIATING OVER THE AREA AS EARLY AS 8-10AM
FRIDAY AND QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS RELATED TO
INITIATION AND EVOLUTION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL
SEE CONVECTION AND GENERALLY EXPECT IT TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN SOME CAMS ARE SHOWING GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE ENVIRONMENT AND
MULTIPLE FORCING MECHANISMS. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.
THE WARM SECTOR QUICKLY DESTABILIZES ALONG AND BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT WITH 1,500-2,500 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE
WARM SECTOR AND EVEN HIGH VALUES OF 2,500-3,500 J/KG SOUTH OF
I-44 PER HREF MEAN. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP AT 8-8.5
C/KM. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE 55-65 KTS THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.
HAZARDS: VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL EXISTS GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED
PARAMETERS AND RAP LARGE HAIL PARAMETER VALUES > 14. ADVERTISING
HAIL SIZES UP TO SOFTBALL. ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE
FOR DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 80 MPH, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN FORM A
COLD POOL AND GROW UPSCALE AS THEY MOVE EAST. TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA WHERE STRONG
TORNADOES MAY OCCUR.
DEPENDING ON HOW THE MORNING INTO MID-AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EVOLVES, IT'S POSSIBLE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION COULD OCCUR
IN THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THE SEVERITY AND POTENTIAL FOR
THIS ROUND IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EARLIER CONVECTION, REDUCING
CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH FEW CHANGES.
SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY
AS THE FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT. THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN RISK ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND FRONT REMAINING EAST OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE STORMS DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND
MOVE EAST INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION. THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODEL MEMBERS
ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THEREFORE FOR
ON THE EXACT DETAILS, SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.
SOME LIGHT RAIN MAIN LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH
PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. WE WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHING
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IF THEY WILL REACH THE TAF SITES AND HAVE KEPT
PROB30S FOR NOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL START OUT FROM THE WEST
HOWEVER A GRADUAL TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT
THEN A FRONT WILL SWITCH IT BACK TO THE WEST FRIDAY LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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