387
FXUS63 KSGF 180848
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
348 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING MAY CONTINUE
WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
DAY (20-40% CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI). ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS COULD BE CAPABLE OF HALF-DOLLAR SIZED HAIL AND 50-60
MPH WIND GUSTS. A GREATER THREAT MAY EXIST TONIGHT (60-80%
CHANCE).
- ENHANCED (3 OF 5) RISK MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION OF STORMS IS LOW, BUT THE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR ANY
STORM TO PRODUCE TENNIS BALL SIZED HAIL, 60-70 MPH WIND GUSTS,
AND A FEW TORNADOES.
- MANY AREAS TO SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE TOTAL RAIN
AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 6-8 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- ACTIVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO END AFTER TUESDAY, WITH MOSTLY
DRY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ONWARDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY PAIRED WITH RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI ALONG AN 850
MB WARM FRONT AT THE NOSE OF A 20-30 KT LLJ. THIS IS OCCURING
BENEATH BROAD WESTERLY MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, WITH ONLY
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING THE BOUNDARY AS NOTED IN MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS EAST KS/WEST MO. A BAROCLINIC
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS NOTED RIGHT ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER. AS A
DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, THIS BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH AT
TIMES, ADVECTING IN MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S HIGH TEMPERATURES. ALONG
WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S DEWPOINTS.
20-40% SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THROUGH TODAY:
DECENT THETA-E MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVERTOP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HAS LED TO PERSISTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE 850 MB WARM FRONT NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE
AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS THEN POSSIBLE WITHIN INCREASED
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LIFTING SURFACE WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS CURRENTLY LOW
(20-40% CHANCE) AS SHORT TERM MODELS DEPICT MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RISING ABOVE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND THE LOW- LEVEL JET
WILL WANE AS DAYTIME MIXING COMMENCES. RAPID-REFRESH MODELS ARE
HINTING AT AN ARC OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LIFTING FRONT, BUT
THEY ARE NOT HANDLING CURRENT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS IN NE OK
VERY WELL. THUS, AN UNMODELED MODIFIED AIRMASS MAY ADVECT IN
WITH THE FRONT, HAMPERING ANY INITIATION. THAT BEING SAID, AT
LEAST SOME SHALLOW SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY
OCCUR WITHIN THE WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME.
THE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT ADVECTING IN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY 1000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE AND 35-45 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACCORDING TO HREF MEAN SOUNDINGS.
SO, IF DEEPER CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT, MULTICELL
CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS SUPERCELLS WOULD BE FAVORED. WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT 7-8 C/KM, HAIL UP TO HALF
DOLLAR SIZE WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD. WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
BENEATH THE PARCEL LIFTING LAYER, 50-60 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.
A GREATER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY EXIST TONIGHT:
WHILE CHANCES OF STORMS EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
WARM FRONT, SEVERE STORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE
SIMULTANEOUSLY ONGOING ALONG A DRYLINE IN CENTRAL KS/OK. THESE
ARE THEN FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST, POTENTIALLY
ENTERING OUR AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTION MARKS ON THIS POTENTIAL AS
CAMS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WITH THE KS STORMS MOVING NORTH OF OUR
AREA, AND THE OK STORMS MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THIS SEEMS TO
OCCUR FROM THE KS STORMS LATCHING TO AND RIDING THE WARM FRONT
(WHICH IS PROGGED TO SITUATE NORTH OF OUR AREA BY THE EVENING),
AND THE OK STORMS RESIDING WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS TX/SE OK. ADDITIONALLY, THE RAP
FORECASTS A SECOND JET STREAK ACROSS WEST KS, WHICH WOULD PUT
RIGHT EXIT REGION SINKING AIR ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE
EVENING. SO SYNOPTICALLY, THIS LAPSE IN PRECIP SIGNAL ACROSS OUR
AREA DOES MAKE SENSE. HOWEVER, IN THE SCENARIO THAT THE STORMS
ACROSS KS/OK GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS TYPE STRUCTURE, THE
BACKGROUND SYNOPTICS MAY BE OVERRULED. EITHER WAY, IN THE EVENT
THAT STORMS DO MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A GREATER SEVERE THREAT WITH HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS, WIND GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY IN A STRONGLY FORCED MCS SCENARIO THANKS TO WESTERLY
20-30 KT 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS, BUT CIN IS EXPECTED TO GREATLY
INCREASE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, LIKELY KEEPING STORMS ELEVATED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
ENHANCED (3 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY:
A TRICKY FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR US MONDAY. SOUTH OF A WARM
FRONT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN MO, AND EAST OF A DRYLINE
PROGGED TO BE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL KS/OK, A VERY MOIST, UNSTABLE,
AND SHEARED WARM SECTOR WILL BE PRESENT. EARLY RAP AND HREF
FORECASTS DEPICT INHIBITION ERODING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
WITH ONLY WEAK CAPPING BY 2-4 PM OR SO. AT THIS POINT, CAMS ARE
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH SOME BREAKING OUT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA, OTHERS ONLY HAVING SHOWERS, AND OTHERS BEING RATHER
DRY. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP IN OUR AREA THIS EARLY, SUPERCELLS
WILL BE THE LIKELY HAZARD WITH 40-55 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. VECTORS FROM THE WEST SUGGEST DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS AS THEY WILL BE PERPENDICULAR TO ANY CONFLUENCE
BANDS. THESE WOULD BE CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS, INCLUDING HAIL UP
TO TENNIS BALLS, WIND GUSTS UP TO 60-70 MPH, AND TORNADOES.
THE MORE CONFIDENT SEVERE THREAT ARRIVES MONDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE SAME MANNER AS SUNDAY'S THREAT: STORMS
INITIATING ALONG THE DRYLINE IN KS/OK MOVING INTO THE AREA.
STRONG FORCING WITH A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SWEEPING COLD
FRONT ARRIVING LATER SUGGESTS A GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS.
HOWEVER, WITH THIS ROUND OF STORMS, 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS
WILL TURN POINTING TO THE NNE, MORE PARALLEL TO THE FORCING.
THEREFORE, UPSCALE GROWTH IS EXPECTED AT SOME POINT, WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO A MORE DAMAGING WIND THREAT OF 60-70 MPH WIND GUSTS, AND
QLCS TORNADOES GIVEN AN INCREASING NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET
PRODUCING 25-35 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR, 25-40 KTS OF 0-3 KM SHEAR
ORIENTED TO TO THE NE, AND >100 J/KG LOW-LEVEL CAPE. SOME
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES (OR SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE
LINE) CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER, WHICH WOULD INTRODUCE A HAIL
THREAT UP TO TENNIS BALLS, AND PERHAPS A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OR
TWO WITH THE RAMPING UP LOW-LEVEL JET.
SLIGHT (2 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY:
DISSIPATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE SWEEPING COLD FRONT. DESTABILIZATION IS
THEN FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH
WOULD PUT THE WARM AND UNSTABLE SECTOR ACROSS THE EASTERN
OZARKS. REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS, SOME PERHAPS SEVERE, IS
THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED, THE
COMPOUNDING EFFECTS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. NBM AND LREF 25-75TH PERCENTILE SPREADS SUGGEST THAT
MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THESE VALUES ARE GREATLY "SMOOTHED
OVER" BY THE VAST UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATIONS, TIMING, AND
STRENGTH OF EACH ROUND OF RAIN. THEREFORE, SOME LOCALIZED AREAS
COULD SEE MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY IF EACH ROUND OF RAIN
DECIDES TO GO OVER SOME OF THE SAME AREAS. THIS IS CORROBORATED
BY RADAR ESTIMATES TODAY THAT SOME AREAS SAW 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN
IN WEST-CENTRAL MO TONIGHT. THIS IS ALREADY AT THE HIGHER END OF
THE QPF FORECAST FOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THEY WILL RECEIVE MORE RAIN. THEREFORE, IT IS
EXPECTED THAT SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MAY SEE AMOUNTS UP TO 6 TO 8
INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPERIMENTAL MPAS AND
RRFS ENSEMBLE PMMS CORROBORATE THIS FORECAST WITH A COUPLE
STRIPES OF QPF AMOUNTS THAT HIGH. THEREFORE, LOCALIZED FLOODING
IS A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE SLOW-MOVING
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES, MULTIPLE HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS, AND/OR
REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAIN EACH NIGHT.
COOLER AND RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER WEDNESDAY ONWARDS:
AFTER THE SYSTEM KICKS THROUGH, COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER ENTERS
THE REGION WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL THEN FOLLOW AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE BENEATH AN
EASTWARD PROGRESSING RIDGE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 70, THEN
IN THE MIDDLE 70S FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. 30-50% RAIN CHANCES RETURN DURING THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE BUILDS BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, HOWEVER
ENSEMBLE QPF CLUSTERS SHOW VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
A TRICKY FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING NOW, WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING A TAF SITE CURRENTLY SITS AT 30-50%. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A DRY PERIOD SHOULD BE 16-02Z (60-80% CHANCE). ANY STORM
THAT DOES IMPACT THE TAF SITE DURING THE PERIOD COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, LIGHTNING, WIND GUSTS UP TO 35-50 KTS, AND.OR
HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE OUT OF THE EAST, SHIFTING
SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 14Z, AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20-25 KTS. SOME VARIATIONS MAY OCCUR WITHIN AND BEHIND ANY
STORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH GENERALLY A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...PRICE
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