709
FXUS63 KSGF 182341
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
641 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED STORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE AR/MO BORDER AND HAVE
BEEN PRODUCING NICKEL SIZED HAIL SO FAR. BEST INSTABILITY IS
LOCATED OVER FAR SW MO NEAR THE WARM FRONT. A GREATER THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST TONIGHT (60-80% CHANCE) WITH ALL
HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
- ENHANCED (3 OF 5) RISK MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION OF STORMS IS LOW-MEDIUM, BUT THE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR ANY
STORM TO PRODUCE TENNIS BALL SIZED HAIL, 60-70 MPH WIND GUSTS,
AND A FEW TORNADOES.
- MANY AREAS TO SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE TOTAL RAIN
AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 6-8 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- ACTIVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO END AFTER TUESDAY, WITH MOSTLY
DRY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ONWARDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
WARM FRONT IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. IT'S SITUATED WEST TO EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE STATE OF ARKANSAS. STORMS HAVE BEEN FIRING UP ALONG THE
FRONT FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE BEEN ELEVATED IN
NATURE. HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED OUT OF MOST OF THESE STORMS WITH
NICKEL SIZED HAIL FALLING IN MCDONALD COUNTY ALREADY THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND THE STORMS RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER (ESPECIALLY OVER SW MO) WHERE
THE MOST INSTABILITY IS OCCURRING. MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE
CONVECTION WELL AND IT'S TOUGH TO SAY WHEN STORMS WILL DISSIPATE
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE STORMS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
STORMS REFIRE AFTER SUNSET AROUND 10 PM AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
GETS GOING OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO FLOW IN FROM THE
WEST AND THEY WILL START AS DISCRETE CELLS NEAR THE DRYLINE OVER
THE OK/KS AREA AND EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS OVER WESTERN
MO. ALL HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
ENHANCED (3 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY:
A TRICKY FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR US MONDAY. DETAILS REMAIN
MOSTLY THE SAME FROM THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE AS SPC HAS KEPT
OUR SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK THE SAME AS WELL. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A MIXTURE OF STORM MODES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH ALL HAZARDS
REMAINING POSSIBLE. SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS
NORTHERN MO, AND EAST OF A DRYLINE PROGGED TO BE ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL KS/OK, A VERY MOIST, UNSTABLE, AND SHEARED WARM SECTOR
WILL BE PRESENT. CAMS ARE STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE IN REGARD TO
TIMING WITH SOME BREAKING OUT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA,
OTHERS ONLY HAVING SHOWERS, AND OTHERS BEING RATHER DRY IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP IN OUR AREA THIS
EARLY, SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE LIKELY HAZARD WITH 40-55 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVERSPREADING THE AREA. VECTORS FROM THE WEST
SUGGEST DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AS THEY WILL BE PERPENDICULAR TO ANY
CONFLUENCE BANDS. THESE WOULD BE CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS,
INCLUDING HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALLS, WIND GUSTS UP TO 60-70 MPH,
AND TORNADOES.
THE MORE CONFIDENT SEVERE THREAT ARRIVES MONDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE SAME MANNER AS TONIGHT'S THREAT: STORMS
INITIATING ALONG THE DRYLINE IN KS/OK MOVING INTO THE AREA.
STRONG FORCING WITH A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SWEEPING COLD
FRONT ARRIVING LATER SUGGESTS A GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS.
HOWEVER, WITH THIS ROUND OF STORMS, 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS
WILL TURN POINTING TO THE NNE, MORE PARALLEL TO THE FORCING.
THEREFORE, UPSCALE GROWTH IS EXPECTED AT SOME POINT, WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO A MORE DAMAGING WIND THREAT OF 60-70 MPH WIND GUSTS,
AND QLCS TORNADOES GIVEN AN INCREASING NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET
PRODUCING 25-35 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR, 25-40 KTS OF 0-3 KM SHEAR
ORIENTED TO TO THE NE, AND >100 J/KG LOW-LEVEL CAPE. SOME
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES (OR SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE)
CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER, WHICH WOULD INTRODUCE A HAIL THREAT
UP TO TENNIS BALLS, AND PERHAPS A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OR TWO
WITH THE RAMPING UP LOW-LEVEL JET.
SLIGHT (2 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY:
DISSIPATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE SWEEPING COLD FRONT. DESTABILIZATION IS
THEN FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH
WOULD PUT THE WARM AND UNSTABLE SECTOR ACROSS THE EASTERN
OZARKS. REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS, SOME PERHAPS SEVERE, IS
THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED, THE
COMPOUNDING EFFECTS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. MOST AREAS HAVE THE PROBABILITY OF SEEING 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THESE VALUES ARE
GREATLY "SMOOTHED OVER" BY THE VAST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LOCATIONS, TIMING, AND STRENGTH OF EACH ROUND OF RAIN.
THEREFORE, SOME LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS,
ESPECIALLY IF EACH ROUND OF RAIN DECIDES TO GO OVER SOME OF THE
SAME AREA. MODELS SHOW UP TO 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPERIMENTAL MPAS AND RRFS ENSEMBLE PMMS
CORROBORATE THIS FORECAST WITH A COUPLE STRIPES OF QPF AMOUNTS
THAT HIGH.
COOLER AND RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER WEDNESDAY ONWARDS:
AFTER THE SYSTEM KICKS THROUGH, COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER ENTERS
THE REGION WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL THEN FOLLOW AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE BENEATH AN
EASTWARD PROGRESSING RIDGE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 70, THEN
IN THE MIDDLE 70S FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. 30-50% RAIN CHANCES RETURN DURING THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE BUILDS BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, HOWEVER
ENSEMBLE QPF CLUSTERS SHOW VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING
WITH REDUCED CEILINGS HOWEVER STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE SITES BY
6Z IF NOT BEFORE. THERE COULD BE AN EXTENDED BREAK IN THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY. BBG WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR CEILINGS BY MONDAY
MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH
A TURN TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING GUSTS. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SORIA
LONG TERM...SORIA
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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