918
FXUS63 KSGF 191906
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
206 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ENHANCED (3 OF 5) TO MODERATE (4 OF 5) RISK TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE AND CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HAZARDS INCLUDE TORNADOES, SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG,
TENNIS BALL SIZED HAIL, AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 70-80 MPH.
- A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.
- MANY AREAS TO SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY. LOCALIZED AREAS
COULD SEE RAIN AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 5-7 INCHES.
- ACTIVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO END AFTER TUESDAY, WITH MOSTLY DRY
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK.
- 40-60% RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE ROCKIES SHIFTING EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS IT PIVOTS TOWARDS THE AREA. A SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER KANSAS, WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
OK/TX AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD LOCATED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AS THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HAS PROGRESSED, THE
SYSTEM HAS LIFTED NORTH/NORTHEAST, LIFTING THE WARM FRONT INTO THE
AREA.
SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
EXPANDED THE MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4 OF 5) FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
WITH ALL MODES (POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT) POSSIBLE. STORM SET-UP WILL
BE PRETTY TRICKY, WITH LIKELY A MIXTURE OF STORM MODES.
AS OF 1230PM, STORMS BEGAN TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN OK, WHICH
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST MO BEGINNING WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR. ACROSS THE REGION, DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S, SHOWING AN AMPLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AS THE CAP
BEGINS TO ERODE. AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES AND LARGE- SCALE
ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION, ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE, BEGINNING AROUND 2-4PM.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE, WITH MLCAPE >
2500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 40-50KTS. WITH THE 0-6KT BULK
SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED FROM THE WEST, SUPERCELLS ARE THE LIKELY
STORM MODE TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF THIS EVENT, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
ALL HAZARDS, INCLUDING LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALLS, DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 70-80MPH, AND TORNADOES, SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG. THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES INTO THE
EVENING, WITH THE RAP STP SHOWING VALUES OF 2-4 WEST OF HWY 65.
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS CLUSTERS OF SUPERCELLS PUSHING THROUGH,
TRANSLATING EAST- NORTHEAST AND BECOMING WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
A TORNADO WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 65 UNTIL 9PM THIS EVENING. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW
THINGS PROGRESS IN ORDER TO DETERMINE ANY SPATIAL OR TEMPORAL
EXPANSIONS IN THE FUTURE.
THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE WESTERN CWA LATER TONIGHT,
PUSHING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. CAMS SHOW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF I-
49 AFTER MIDNIGHT TRANSLATING EASTWARD INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE. AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES, 20-25KT 0-
1KM SHEAR AND 100-200 M2/S2 SRH WILL ALLOW FOR THE TORNADO THREAT TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
SLIGHT (2 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY:
DISSIPATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SWEEPING COLD FRONT,
PRIMARILY EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. WE COULD SEE SOME DESTABILIZATION
OCCUR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, LEADING TO 20-40% PROBABILITY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN OZARKS, HOWEVER
LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS LESS KEEN ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS
OCCURRENCE, SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY LOW.
IF THIS CAN OCCUR, 30-40KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF SUPERCELLS. WE'LL NEED TO SEE IF THIS WOULD BE MORE SURFACE BASED
OR ELEVATED IN NATURE, WHICH WOULD DETERMINE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. IF
THEY'RE MORE SURFACE BASED, THEN TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE,
HOWEVER MORE ELEVATED STORMS WOULD LEAD TO LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF
BALLS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM UNTIL 7AM TUESDAY:
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY INTO TOMORROW, A CWA-WIDE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 7AM TUESDAY. OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS, AREAS ACROSS EAST KS
AND WEST-CENTRAL MO HAVE ALREADY SEEN 0.5-2.0 INCHES OF RAINFALL,
WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF 2-4 INCHES. HREF LPMM SHOWS TWO PRIMARY
CORRIDORS FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL, WITH ONE OVER WEST-
CENTRAL MO, AND ANOTHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN OZARKS. BOTH
OF THESE LOCATIONS COULD SEE BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL, WITH THE LPMM SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF UP TO 4-
6 INCHES. THE WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL MO IN A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
ONCE THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH, COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ENTER
THE REGION, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
WEDNESDAY, AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED,
WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, 40-60% RAIN CHANCES RETURN AS MOISTURE
BUILDS BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.
WE'LL CONTINUE MONITORING HOW THINGS PROGRESS AS WE GET CLOSER TO
THIS TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD, WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BE SEVERE. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH
LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALLS, TORNADOES, WIND GUSTS UP TO
60-70MPH, LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. STORM DEVELOPMENT
COULD BE AS EARLY AS 20Z, HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE
AFTER 22Z, PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES, ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...MELTO
AVIATION...MELTO
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