172
FXUS63 KSGF 131733
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1233 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
MOST AREAS TODAY.
- HEAVY RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY ISOLATED, STRONGER CELLS, WHICH MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING IF MOVING OVER THE SAME LOCATION.
- ON AND OFF LOWER END CHANCES(15-40%) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES WARMING INTO THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND CURRENT CONDITIONS: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS WITH THE POLAR JET FROM OREGON INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE U.S. CANADA BORDER. WITHIN THE WEAKER
FLOW SOUTH OF THE POLAR JET, SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WERE
BRINGING CONVECTION TO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN UPPER LOW WITHIN THIS WEAK FLOW WAS
LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA AND WAS BRINGING A FAIRLY
LARGE AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE CWA WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVIER SHOWERS NEARER TO THE CIRCULATION
IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI.
TODAY-TONIGHT: THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK OVERLY CONCERNING, POCKETS OF HEAVIER
CONVECTION GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IF
THE STRONGER CELLS MOVE ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS. THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S
FOR HIGHS TODAY, DESPITE STARTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS AND OUT OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY: UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, HOWEVER THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. WHILE MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN
FREE ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LOW
POPS SNEAKING INTO THE WESTERN CWA BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S IN THE
EAST AND THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE WEST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS MESSY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
INITIALLY, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
WITH SOME NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS
WHICH MAY BRING SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN
THE WEEK. WHILE WE WON'T SEE CONTINUOUS RAIN, WE WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END POPS(15-40%) FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK.
A DEEPER TROUGH LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE WESTERLIES AROUND
MIDWEEK (WED/THU) WITH RAIN CHANCES (20-50%).
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 70S, WE COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S
TO AROUND 100 TUE AND WED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS AND AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST. THE COVERAGE WILL DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
AT TIMES WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY ON SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE BETTER CHANCES WILL
BE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOP EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE SOME CLEARING IN
THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED POP UP STORMS WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. COVERAGE WILL NOT
BE WIDESPREAD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...WISE
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