735
FXUS63 KSGF 161720
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1220 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY, MAINLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING REMAIN
POSSIBLE.
- MARGINAL (1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI, THEN A SLIGHT (15% CHANCE) RISK
WEDNESDAY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
- HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
SIGNALS POINT TO TEMPERATURES NEARING 90 F TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE, WE MAY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
MID-90S TO AROUND 100 AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
AN MCV REMAINS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE OVER FAR SOUTHERN MO.
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH PW VALUES
RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2.1". SLOW MOVING SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MO WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CAUSING SOME EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
FLOODING.
BECAUSE OF THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT, THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA TODAY AND WE'LL SEE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN, MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY ONGOING. EVENTUALLY THE
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME
CLEARING.
AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE PLAINS, BUT SHOULD STAY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA PRIOR TO 12Z TUE. SOME REMNANTS OF
THIS CONVECTION MAY AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS SHOULD BRING
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO SHIFT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS(MARGINAL/SLIGHT) WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS THE TROUGH MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA. HIGH PW VALUES, DECENT INSTABILITY AND MODERATE TO STRONG
SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THERE IS ALSO A MARGINAL/SLIGHT EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR THESE SAME AREAS.
THE SEVERE AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND FRONT SHIFT
THROUGH THE AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S TO
LOWER 100S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER THE REGION,
THOUGH INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS ARE STILL IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
AND MAY CONTINUE TO DO FOR A FEW HOURS MORE. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO CALM THIS EVENING, AND WITH CLEARING SKIES, OPEN THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR MVFR FOG AT THE TAF SITES. I WOULDN'T BE SHOCKED
IF CONDITIONS BECOME INTERMITTENTLY IFR, AND A TEMPO WAS ADDED
AT EACH TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. CONVECTION WILL LARGELY HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER THE VALID TAF PERIOD, MAINLY ARRIVING TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...MRB
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