457
FXUS63 KSGF 181134
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
634 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS (2/3 OF 5) TODAY
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-44.
- MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (1 OF 4) TODAY, AND COULD
LEAD TO A LOCALIZED FLOODING RISK.
- HUMID AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
A COMPLEX OF STORMS FORMED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY
EVENING AND IS MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS
CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM FAR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI INTO ARKANSAS WITH THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, BUT WITH TIME THE STRONGER PORTIONS OF THE LINE SHOULD
START TO MOVE MORE SOUTHEASTERN WITH TIME; HOWEVER, A SEVERE
RISK MAY EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI, GENERALLY SOUTH OF HWY
65. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN RISK, AND COULD SEE GUSTS
UP TO 70MPH. SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A QLCS SPIN UP TORNADO RISK ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI WITH ANY SURGES IN THE LINE TO THE
NORTHEAST, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A ANDERSON TO CASSVILLE
MISSOURI LINE, BUT OVERALL THIS RISK IS LOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND TWO INCHES SO HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THERE COULD
BE SOME TRAINING OF STORMS JUST NORTH OF THE STRONGEST PORTIONS
OF THE LINE, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A LOCALIZED FLOODING RISK EARLY
THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE JUST BEHIND THE
BOWING LINE SEGMENT IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, WHICH COULD CLIP
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME TRAILING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI,
AND THERE COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS SOME
MUCAPE REMAINS IN PLACE.
THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY RECOVERY FOR A
LOT OF THE AREA BUT WILL START TO SEE SOME RECOVERY FURTHER
EAST, DEPENDING ON JUST HOW QUICK CLOUDS CLEAR. THE BETTER
INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE AREA, BUT COULD INCLUDE
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF INSTABILITY CAN
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA, SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS A
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING. AN ENHANCED SPC RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) IS IN PLACE OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI.
IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP, THE WINDOW WILL BE SHORT, AS THEY WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. IF INSTABILITY RECOVERS OVER THE AREA AND
STORMS CAN DEVELOP, ALL MODE SEVERE RISK WITH HAIL UP TO GOLF
BALL SIZE, 60 MPH WINDS, AND BRIEF TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
TOO.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMER AIR MASS
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS IN AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE 70S EACH DAY
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURES, WITH ONLY A FOUR/FIVE DEGREE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE RANGE IN
HIGHS EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY (FROM THE UPPER 80S
TO THE LOWER 90S). A HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA, WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM
THE MID 90S TO SINGLE DIGIT 100S BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA, THERE ARE NOT ANY SIGNALS FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
MVFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE
SGF/BBG BETWEEN 14-16Z. THEN MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND AFFECT
THE TERMINALS WHICH COULD BRING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS SET
OF TAFS. THERE IS ALSO A LOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG WHICH COULD BRING
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT, BUT ONCE AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE IT THIS FAR OUT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...00
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