612
FXUS63 KSGF 181919
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
219 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EVENING STORMS MAY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE SOUTH OF
I-44.
- HUMID AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY, RADAR IMAGERY, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING NORTHEAST JUST NORTH OF ST. LOUIS
THIS AFTERNOON. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS DRAPED SOUTH ACROSS
MISSOURI AND IS ACTUALLY ALMOST COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA.
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS MOSTLY ILLINOIS, ALONG
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT/ENHANCED SPC RISK. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE OUTCOMES OUT THAT WAY,
AND SEVERAL TORNADO WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
POTENTIALLY DUE TO MORNING CONVECTION, THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT APPEARS TO BE A BIT TEMPERED FOR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BEST ENVIRONMENT REMAINS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
WHICH ARCS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST, PLACING MOST OF OUR AREA
BEHIND IT. THE SLIGHT RISK FOLLOWS THIS CURVE, AS THE CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT PERSISTS FROM EASTERN MISSOURI DOWN INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
SOUTHERN MISSOURI MAY STILL BRING A FEW ISOLATED STORMS SOUTH OF
I-44 THIS EVENING. LINGERING CAPPING STABILITY ERODES THE NEXT
FEW HOURS LEAVING 1000-2500 J/KG CAPE AND 30-45 KTS OF BULK
SHEAR. MOST OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT HAS MOVED OFF WITH THE COLD
FRONT, THOUGH, SO STORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON IS LOOKING
SPARSE. THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL/WINDS OUT OF THESE
STORMS IS NOT ZERO, BUT WITH THE LACK OF SUPPORT AND ISOLATED
NATURE, IMPACTS WOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED.
AFTER THIS FRONT FINISHES SWINGING THROUGH THIS EVENING, THE
COMMAHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL WRAP AROUND INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND INITIATE A FEW MORE STORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, BUT THE OVERNIGHT ENVIRONMENT WILL BE EVEN MORE
WORKED OVER. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SEVERE CONCERN WITH THESE
STORMS.
BEGINNING TOMORROW, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN, BRINGING
CLEAR AND HOT CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THURSDAY WILL BE
SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
RIDGING KEEPS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AWAY AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE HEAT INDEX
VALUES TO BE HIGHER, AROUND AND IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN PARTICULAR WILL SEE AREAS WITH A MAJOR
HEATRISK (LEVEL 4/5). THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL BE
SUNNY AND HOT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
MAINLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT A
SHORT PERIOD OF BKN022 CUMULUS AT KJLN AND KSGF IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THERE IS ALSO A 50% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID TO LATE EVENING TODAY AT KBBG.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NELSON
LONG TERM...NELSON
AVIATION...TITUS
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