903
FXUS63 KSGF 190608
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
108 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
- HUMID AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL THEN OCCUR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED WITH THE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSOURI THIS MORNING AS INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE EAST OF
THE CURRENT CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY STRONG
AND THERE IS DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH
WILL LIMIT ANY STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WITH LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY LOCALIZED RAIN THE RISK WHICH
THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY EAST AND OUT OF
THE AREA BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
LOWS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL
COOL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S, WITH SOME LOWER 60 READINGS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. HIGHS TODAY WILL WARM
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY REMAINING LIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A WARMER AIR MASS
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS WARMING
INTO THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS HEAT INDEX VALUES WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK
NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEREFORE NO
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL START TO SPREAD EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) WILL START TO
RETURN TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE TAF SITE. THERE IS SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING IN SOME LOW LYING
AREAS, BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BECOME NORTHERLY THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON THEN SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND REMAIN LIGHT
BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
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