853
FXUS63 KSGF 191932
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
232 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN
DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST, AND A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER HAS SETTLED RIGHT OVERHEAD. WINDS ARE LIGHT, SKIES ARE CLEAR
APART FROM SOME FAIR WEATHER CU, AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL WARM US
UP INTO THE MID TO HIGH 80S TODAY. TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S. RADIATIVE COOLING IN VALLEYS OUT EAST WILL START TO
BECOME VERY OBVIOUS IN CONTRAST WITH THESE HIGH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES, AND VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL COOL TO SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER THAN THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ALLOWING FOR
MORE SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PICKS UP
FRIDAY, BEGINNING OUR WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS FRIDAY
TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S, GIVING US HEAT
INDEX VALUES AROUND 100. MINIMAL CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY GIVES
WAY TO COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT, BUT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID 70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
ON SATURDAY, SOUTHWEST WINDS PICK UP A BIT, AND AREAS NORTHWEST OF
SPRINGFIELD MAY SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH THROUGHOUT PEAK
HEATING. HIGHS AND THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY, IN THE
LOW 90S AND AROUND 100 RESPECTIVELY. DEWPOINTS ARE A TAD LOWER ON
SUNDAY, SO THE HEAT INDEX WILL LARGELY REMAIN JUST UNDER 100 WHILE
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY.
HEAT HEADLINES ARE NOT PLANNED AT THE MOMENT, BUT IF A HEAT INDEX OF
AT LEAST 100 IS MET FOR FOUR OR MORE DAYS, A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED EVENTUALLY. TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING NORTH STARTS TO BRING
SOME LOW POPS TO THE AREA MONDAY, BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK WITH ANOTHER MIDLATITUDE
SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS THE HEAT. DEWPOINTS
ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY, MAKING
THE HIGH AMBIENT TEMPERATURE FEEL VERY OPPRESSIVE. ESPECIALLY SINCE
THIS IS THE FIRST HEAT WAVE OF THE YEAR, TAKE CARE TO KEEP YOURSELF
AND LOVED ONES SAFE IN THE HEAT THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTER IN
AFTER 6Z. WINDS ARE INITIALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, STRENGTHENING
UP TO 10-12 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NELSON
LONG TERM...NELSON
AVIATION...NELSON
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