188
FXUS63 KSGF 041957
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
257 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NORMAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 90 AND 100.
- ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (10-30%) ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY INTO SATURDAY.
- ADDITIONAL 30-60% RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STILL LOOKING AT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED (20-30% COVERAGE) SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 90 WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S.
SATURDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE (20-40%) OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 90-100.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
RESULTING IN HIGHER POPS UP TO 50-70% (HIGHEST IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING). SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND PWAT VALUES OF
1.6-1.8" MAY LEAD TO VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING, BUT THIS WOULD BE
THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE SIMILAR FORECASTS WITH 30-50%
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORM, PRIMARILY IN THE
AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S (MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 90-100) AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A ~20% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...TITUS
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