767
FXUS63 KSGF 050700
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
200 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NORMAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 90 AND 100.
- ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20-40%) ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-70%) ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (20-50%) MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT: A BIT OF BREAKDOWN IN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME FORCING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
(20-40%). COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44. HIGHS
REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE MID 90S. A HANDFUL OF CAMS SUGGEST RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO
TONIGHT, WHICH WOULD BE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 44.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THIS POTENTIAL, AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY TO INCREASE POPS AS NEEDED. LOWS FALL
INTO THE LOWER 70S OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SUNDAY: THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
HIGHER AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-70%)
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE
COLUMN (PWATS UP TO 1.8 INCH) WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL
RATES AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONALLY, THE
SLOW MOVING NATURE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY SUPPORT LOCALIZED
FLOODING. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. LOWER RAIN CHANCES (10-30%) LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY-FRIDAY: A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SETS UP INTO NEXT WEEK,
SUPPORTING DAILY SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
(20-50%). DAILY RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IT IS WORTH NOTING THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
TRANSLATING THROUGH THE FLOW. THUS, EXPECT CHANGES AS DETAILS
BECOME MORE CLEAR THROUGH THE WEEK. DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S (MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 90-100) AND LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HAZE DISSIPATING.
CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
WITH CHANCES (15-30%) FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...PEREZ
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