065  
FXUS63 KSGF 060451  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
1151 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-70%)  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY  
ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.  
 
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (20-60%) MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF  
NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE HAS ALLOWED FOR THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF A HANDFUL OF SCATTERED SMALL SHOWERS ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GUIDANCE DEPICTS MUCAPE VALUES  
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY  
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN LESS  
PREVALENT. SOME UPDRAFTS MAY GET TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE  
LIGHTNING, THOUGH VERY WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE LONGEVITY OF  
ANY PARTICULAR STORM. WE HAVE LEFT LOW-END POPS (20-40%) IN THE  
FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS SOME CAMS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY FESTERS  
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
SUNDAY:  
SUNDAY FEATURES THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF THE  
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH 50-70% POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
AS THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRANSITS THE REGION,  
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL SPUR  
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  
DIURNAL HEATING IS PROGGED TO PUSH AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES INTO  
THE 2500-3500 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-3 KM THETA-E DIFFERENCES OF  
20-25 DEG C, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE  
OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-50 MPH. SHEAR  
STILL LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AGAIN, SO INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL  
STRUGGLE TO STAY ORGANIZED. PWATS IN THE 1.6-2.0" RANGE WILL  
ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL, AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS MAY ALLOW  
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED,  
HOWEVER.  
 
MONDAY-FRIDAY:  
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ENSEMBLE SUITE WAS NOTED FOR THE LONG-TERM  
FORECAST; THAT IS, A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WITH  
TRANSIENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW FOR  
INTERMITTENT RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. NBM PERCENTILES  
SUPPORT CLIMATOLOGICALLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EACH DAY, WITH  
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
INTO THE EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS A  
RESULT OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. WINDS OUT OF  
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.  
 
 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...DIDIO  
LONG TERM...DIDIO  
AVIATION...PEREZ  
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