065
FXUS63 KSGF 060451
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1151 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-70%)
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (20-60%) MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE HAS ALLOWED FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A HANDFUL OF SCATTERED SMALL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GUIDANCE DEPICTS MUCAPE VALUES
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN LESS
PREVALENT. SOME UPDRAFTS MAY GET TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING, THOUGH VERY WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE LONGEVITY OF
ANY PARTICULAR STORM. WE HAVE LEFT LOW-END POPS (20-40%) IN THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS SOME CAMS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY FESTERS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SUNDAY:
SUNDAY FEATURES THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH 50-70% POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRANSITS THE REGION,
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL SPUR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
DIURNAL HEATING IS PROGGED TO PUSH AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES INTO
THE 2500-3500 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-3 KM THETA-E DIFFERENCES OF
20-25 DEG C, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-50 MPH. SHEAR
STILL LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AGAIN, SO INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL
STRUGGLE TO STAY ORGANIZED. PWATS IN THE 1.6-2.0" RANGE WILL
ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL, AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS MAY ALLOW
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED,
HOWEVER.
MONDAY-FRIDAY:
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ENSEMBLE SUITE WAS NOTED FOR THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST; THAT IS, A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WITH
TRANSIENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW FOR
INTERMITTENT RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. NBM PERCENTILES
SUPPORT CLIMATOLOGICALLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EACH DAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS A
RESULT OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. WINDS OUT OF
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...PEREZ
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