046
FXUS63 KSGF 061050
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
550 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS (50-70%) THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
ACTIVITY.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (20-60%) MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT: THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TRANSLATE INTO THE REGION TODAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN
TODAY, SOME DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. HIGHS REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. MUCAPE VALUES
AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THE INSTABILITY
AXIS TO SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL MO. THIS WILL BE THE AREA OF
GREATEST FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP, WITH RAIN CHANCES (50-70%) IN THIS AREA REFLECTING THE
HIGHER CONFIDENCE. ELSEWHERE, ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN MO INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN THE AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY, A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SMALL HAIL AND/OR WIND
GUSTS AROUND 40-50 MPH WOULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LACK OF ADEQUATE SHEAR WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL. MEANWHILE, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS IN PLAY
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT (PWATS 1.8-2.0 INCHES) AND SLOW
STORM MOTIONS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS IS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HREF LOCAL PROBABILITY MATCHED-MEAN (LPMM).
OVERALL, THE CAMS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACTIVITY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE
EXTENT OF COVERAGE BEYOND THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FOR THE
TIME BEING, WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-40% POPS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
MONDAY-SATURDAY: THE FORECAST REMAINS RATHER UNCHANGED AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD, WITH A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SERIES OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW, WITH VARYING
TIMING/INTENSITY/LOCATION OF FEATURES FROM DAY TO DAY. GIVEN
THIS PATTERN, DECENT RAIN CHANCES (30-60%) REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH LOWER CHANCES (20-40%) THROUGH
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WITH WASHOUTS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR IN THIS REGIME. WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY, WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WOULD BE
EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES (2 TO 4
MILES) AND CEILINGS (1000 TO 2500 FEET). ADDITIONAL LOW RAIN
CHANCES LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO DEPICT IN THE TAFS. WINDS OUT OF SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...PEREZ
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