046  
FXUS63 KSGF 061050  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
550 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS (50-70%) THIS AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS  
ACTIVITY.  
 
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (20-60%) MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF  
NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.  
 
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
TODAY-TONIGHT: THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT  
TRANSLATE INTO THE REGION TODAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS  
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN  
TODAY, SOME DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH DAYTIME  
HEATING. HIGHS REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. MUCAPE VALUES  
AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING  
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THE INSTABILITY  
AXIS TO SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL MO. THIS WILL BE THE AREA OF  
GREATEST FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO  
DEVELOP, WITH RAIN CHANCES (50-70%) IN THIS AREA REFLECTING THE  
HIGHER CONFIDENCE. ELSEWHERE, ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN MO INTO THE LATE  
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN THE AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY, A STRONG  
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SMALL HAIL AND/OR WIND  
GUSTS AROUND 40-50 MPH WOULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST  
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LACK OF ADEQUATE SHEAR WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE  
POTENTIAL. MEANWHILE, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS IN PLAY  
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT (PWATS 1.8-2.0 INCHES) AND SLOW  
STORM MOTIONS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO A  
QUARTER TO HALF INCH, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES  
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS IS  
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HREF LOCAL PROBABILITY MATCHED-MEAN (LPMM).  
OVERALL, THE CAMS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF  
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACTIVITY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE  
EXTENT OF COVERAGE BEYOND THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FOR THE  
TIME BEING, WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-40% POPS THROUGH  
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
MONDAY-SATURDAY: THE FORECAST REMAINS RATHER UNCHANGED AS WE  
PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD, WITH A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN  
SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SERIES OF EMBEDDED  
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW, WITH VARYING  
TIMING/INTENSITY/LOCATION OF FEATURES FROM DAY TO DAY. GIVEN  
THIS PATTERN, DECENT RAIN CHANCES (30-60%) REMAIN IN THE  
FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH LOWER CHANCES (20-40%) THROUGH  
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED  
TO OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WITH WASHOUTS NOT  
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT  
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR IN THIS REGIME. WIDESPREAD  
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR  
EARLY JULY, WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WOULD BE  
EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES (2 TO 4  
MILES) AND CEILINGS (1000 TO 2500 FEET). ADDITIONAL LOW RAIN  
CHANCES LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH  
ENOUGH TO DEPICT IN THE TAFS. WINDS OUT OF SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10  
KNOTS.  
 
 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...PEREZ  
LONG TERM...PEREZ  
AVIATION...PEREZ  
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