504
FXUS63 KSGF 070445
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1145 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP TO 50-60 MPH AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (20-70%) MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THIS
WEEK. HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
CONVECTIVE INITIATION BEGAN LATE THIS MORNING WITH THE CU FIELD
BECOMING INCREASINGLY AGITATED THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WAS
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI, WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WHILE MOST IF NOT ALL
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE, RAP MESOANALYSIS
DEPICTS MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG, 0-3 KM THETA-E
DIFFERENCES OF 25 DEG C, AND FAIRLY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
WHICH MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 50-60 MPH.
THIS POTENTIAL IS SUPPORTED BY THE OZARKS PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM INDEX. INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 10 PM, THOUGH
A FEW CAMS LINGER SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE STALLED FRONT, SO WE HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME LOW-END POPS (20-40%) ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI
OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND SLOW STORM MOTION, WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN FACT, THE 12Z
HREF LPMM SUGGESTS LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 3-4 INCHES. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN THESE AMOUNTS, HOWEVER, SO
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
MONDAY-SATURDAY:
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ENSEMBLE SUITE WAS NOTED FOR THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST; THAT IS, A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WITH
TRANSIENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW FOR
INTERMITTENT RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. CURRENTLY, THE
LOWEST RAIN CHANCES (15-30%) ARE ON THURSDAY. NBM PERCENTILES
SUPPORT CLIMATOLOGICALLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EACH DAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT TAFS AT THIS TIME. BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS MAY OCCUR. ADDITIONAL
CHANCES ARE DEPICTED IN THE TAFS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...PEREZ
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