504  
FXUS63 KSGF 070445  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
1145 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP TO 50-60 MPH AND HEAVY  
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.  
 
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (20-70%) MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THIS  
WEEK. HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.  
 
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
CONVECTIVE INITIATION BEGAN LATE THIS MORNING WITH THE CU FIELD  
BECOMING INCREASINGLY AGITATED THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WAS  
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI, WITH INCREASING MOISTURE  
CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WHILE MOST IF NOT ALL  
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE, RAP MESOANALYSIS  
DEPICTS MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG, 0-3 KM THETA-E  
DIFFERENCES OF 25 DEG C, AND FAIRLY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,  
WHICH MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 50-60 MPH.  
THIS POTENTIAL IS SUPPORTED BY THE OZARKS PULSE SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORM INDEX. INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 10 PM, THOUGH  
A FEW CAMS LINGER SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE STALLED FRONT, SO WE HAVE  
MAINTAINED SOME LOW-END POPS (20-40%) ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND SLOW STORM MOTION, WE WILL  
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN FACT, THE 12Z  
HREF LPMM SUGGESTS LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 3-4 INCHES. MOST  
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN THESE AMOUNTS, HOWEVER, SO  
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
MONDAY-SATURDAY:  
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ENSEMBLE SUITE WAS NOTED FOR THE LONG-TERM  
FORECAST; THAT IS, A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WITH  
TRANSIENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW FOR  
INTERMITTENT RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. CURRENTLY, THE  
LOWEST RAIN CHANCES (15-30%) ARE ON THURSDAY. NBM PERCENTILES  
SUPPORT CLIMATOLOGICALLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EACH DAY, WITH  
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LINGER  
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE  
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT TAFS AT THIS TIME. BRIEF  
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS MAY OCCUR. ADDITIONAL  
CHANCES ARE DEPICTED IN THE TAFS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE  
EVENING. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...DIDIO  
LONG TERM...DIDIO  
AVIATION...PEREZ  
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