417  
FXUS63 KSGF 071100  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
600 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-50%) THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.  
 
- GREATER CHANCES (50-70%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A  
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS  
OF 50 TO 60 MPH IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.  
 
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (30-50%) PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK  
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHEST CHANCES OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENINGS.  
 
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
TODAY-TONIGHT: QUASI-ZONAL FLOW HAS SETUP ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
CONUS TO BEGIN THE WEEK, FEATURING A SERIES OF EMBEDDED  
SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE FLOW. ENSEMBLES VARY  
A BIT ON EXACT TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF EACH WAVE.  
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL ENOUGH CONSISTENCY TO SUGGEST DAILY  
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEK  
AHEAD. FOR TODAY, SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES  
(30-50%) RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES  
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN MO, GENERALLY TIED TO THE AREA OF  
GREATEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH OF A FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY. HIGHS REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THIS  
AFTERNOON, WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. LOCALIZED HEAVY  
RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS, WITH  
FLOODING LIMITED TO URBAN OR FLOOD-PRONE AREAS. HREF LPMM  
DEPICTS POCKETS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES, WITH MOST AREAS SEEING A HALF  
INCH OR LESS WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. LOW RAIN CHANCES (10-30%)  
LINGER INTO TONIGHT, THOUGH WOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
TUESDAY: ON TUESDAY, A BIT STRONGER OF SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH  
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE, A BIT MORE OF A  
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THIS  
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE 3000-4000  
J/KG) IN THE VICINITY OF SOME MARGINAL SHEAR (EFFECTIVE BULK  
SHEAR 20-25 KNOTS). WITH INCREASED FORCING AHEAD OF THE  
SHORTWAVE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPC HAS  
HIGHLIGHTED A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK (1 OUT OF 5) OVER THE  
ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW  
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60  
MPH WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITHIN ANY OF THE STRONGER  
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. ADDITIONALLY, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL  
REMAINS IN PLAY GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS (1.8 TO 2.0 INCH) AND SLOW  
STORM MOTIONS. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWER  
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-70%). EXPECT ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY  
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  
 
WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY: AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK, THE  
PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT DAILY RAIN CHANCES. THE LOWEST RAIN  
CHANCES (10-30%) COME ON THURSDAY, WITH A BIT HIGHER CHANCES  
(20-50%) RETURNING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALL DAY WASHOUTS ARE NOT  
EXPECTED, THOUGH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE WHERE  
RAIN DOES OCCUR. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY  
JULY. DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90, AND LOWS IN THE  
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MO. THIS  
WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES AROUND 1 TO 3 MILES AT  
KJLN. ANY FOG WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON  
INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND  
CEILINGS WITHIN ANY ACTIVITY. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE  
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...PEREZ  
LONG TERM...PEREZ  
AVIATION...PEREZ  
 
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