099
FXUS63 KSGF 071748
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1248 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-50%) THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
- GREATER CHANCES (50-70%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
OF 50 TO 60 MPH IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (30-50%) PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHEST CHANCES OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT: QUASI-ZONAL FLOW HAS SETUP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS TO BEGIN THE WEEK, FEATURING A SERIES OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE FLOW. ENSEMBLES VARY
A BIT ON EXACT TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF EACH WAVE.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL ENOUGH CONSISTENCY TO SUGGEST DAILY
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEK
AHEAD. FOR TODAY, SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
(30-50%) RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN MO, GENERALLY TIED TO THE AREA OF
GREATEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HIGHS REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
FLOODING LIMITED TO URBAN OR FLOOD-PRONE AREAS. HREF LPMM
DEPICTS POCKETS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES, WITH MOST AREAS SEEING A HALF
INCH OR LESS WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. LOW RAIN CHANCES (10-30%)
LINGER INTO TONIGHT, THOUGH WOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
TUESDAY: ON TUESDAY, A BIT STRONGER OF SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE, A BIT MORE OF A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE 3000-4000
J/KG) IN THE VICINITY OF SOME MARGINAL SHEAR (EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR 20-25 KNOTS). WITH INCREASED FORCING AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK (1 OUT OF 5) OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60
MPH WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITHIN ANY OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. ADDITIONALLY, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS IN PLAY GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS (1.8 TO 2.0 INCH) AND SLOW
STORM MOTIONS. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-70%). EXPECT ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY: AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK, THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT DAILY RAIN CHANCES. THE LOWEST RAIN
CHANCES (10-30%) COME ON THURSDAY, WITH A BIT HIGHER CHANCES
(20-50%) RETURNING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALL DAY WASHOUTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED, THOUGH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE WHERE
RAIN DOES OCCUR. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY. DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90, AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH A SCATTERED LOW CU FIELD ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BECOME MORE
ROBUST AS SCATTERED PULSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL
PULSE STORM PLACEMENT/DEVELOPMENT IS LOW, CONFIDENCE IN
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IS HIGHEST FURTHEST
SOUTH, INCLUDING AT BBG. LIGHTNING WILL BE LIKELY IN STRONG
STORMS THAT DEVELOP, BRINGING THUNDER AT LEAST TO THE VICINITY
OF ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...CAMDEN
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