588
FXUS63 KSGF 080525
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1225 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-55%) THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND WINDS UP
TO 50-60 MPH IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST PULSE STORMS.
- MORE ORGANIZED CHANCES (50-65%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY BEGINNING EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH IN ADDITION TO
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (30-50%) PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHEST CHANCES OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:
FLOW REMAINS QUASI-ZONAL TO OUR NORTH IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WITH
THE OZARKS PLACED BETWEEN TWO TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES PULSING OFF
THE PARENT FLOW TO THE NORTH. A WEAK TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY
HAS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI, WHICH IS COLLOCATED ALONG
THE EDGE OF A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT. WE ARE ALSO SITTING
ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
FOCUSED OVER THE MID-SOUTH.
STORMS CHANCES/MODE THIS AFTERNOON:
BROAD 20-50% POPS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHEST (30-55%) CHANCES
FURTHEST SOUTH NEAR THE AR/MO STATE LINE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE RAIN WILL DEVELOP IS LOW, BUT SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL BE
STRONGEST FURTHEST SOUTH ALONG THE EDGE OF THE HIGH-PRESSURE
RIDGE, WITH SECONDARY FORCING ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE NORTH.
MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE PULSE TO PULSE CLUSTERS, WITH QUESTIONS
ABOUT COVERAGE CONTRIBUTING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES
AT A SINGLE POINT LOCATION. HOWEVER, FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF PULSE STORMS SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IS HIGH.
STORM HAZARDS:
THE PULSE-Y NATURE OF THE STORMS WILL MAKE MARGINALLY SEVERE DAMAGING
WINDS 45-60 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH COLLAPSING STORMS THE PRIMARY
SEVERE HAZARD. DCAPE AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG AND THETA-E
DIFFERENCES >25 K PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT RIPE FOR WET
MICROBURSTS IN STORMS THAT DEVELOP ROBUST UPDRAFTS.
HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT ALSO REMAINS VERY MOIST, AND WITHIN A
WEAK SHEAR REGIME WITH PW VALUES 1.8-2", THESE PULSE STORMS
WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. LOCALIZED RAINFALL
RATES 1.5-2.5" PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY, BEHAVIOR WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
(SLOW-MOVING, POTENTIALLY SHORT PERIODS OF TRAINING OFF ITS OWN
OUTFLOW) WHICH COULD INCREASE RESIDENCE TIME OVER A GIVEN AREA
AND ELEVATE RATE-DRIVEN FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN AREAS. RECENT HRRR RUNS AND 12Z HREF LPMMS INDICATE THAT
SMALL POCKETS OF 3-5" WILL BE IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR
THE STRONGEST AND LONGEST-LASTING STORMS.
EARLY AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS 0-3KM CAPE >75 J/KG AND
A WEAK THERMAL RIDGE APPROACHING THE BOUNDARY, SO BRIEF FUNNELS
OR MAYBE A LANDSPOUT COULD BE SIGHTED, ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAINLY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
TUESDAY:
SOME MODELS/12Z HREF MEMBERS KEEP CONVECTION LINGERING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT
LINGERING CONVECTION WON'T MAKE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF CONVECTION LATER IN THE DAY, WITH MORE THAN
ENOUGH INSTABILITY (>3000 J/KG SBCAPE) AND INCREASING SHEAR
SUPPORTING MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AS
OPPOSED TO PULSERS AS ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SEES AN
INCREASE TO 35-60% POPS, WHICH REMAIN INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF STORMS BRINGS AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF WIDESPREAD MCS-DRIVEN DAMAGING WINDS, WITH WINDS 50-65 MPH
POSSIBLE. EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES KEEP ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST
PORTIONS OF THE ORGANIZED MCS STAYS TO OUR WEST IN
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA, BUT WITH FAVORABLE THERMOS ESPECIALLY IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE STORMS BE EXTENDED SLIGHTLY INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES.
WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY:
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE THAT DISRUPTS OUR EARLY WEEK ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST, WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A 925/850MB FRONT ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE MCS
BRINGING SOME DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP MITIGATE
AFTERNOON PRECIP CHANCES, ESPECIALLY FURTHEST NORTHWEST, WITH
AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I-44 LIKELY TO STAY DRY WEDNESDAY
(<25% CHANCES). NBM QPF FOOTPRINTS SUGGEST MOST AREAS STAY DRY
AND THE EASTERN OZARKS MAYBE SEEING A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
A SHORTWAVE EJECTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AGAIN THURSDAY
BEFORE A STRONGER LARGE-SCALE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTH INTO
THE WEEKEND, KEEPING 20-35% POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
16Z LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE HAS DECREASED, SO CONTINUED THE PROB30 GROUPS IN THE
TAFS FOR NOW. ANY STRONGER STORM THAT IMPACTS THE TERMINALS
WOULD LOWER VISIBILITIES FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AND BRING CHANGING
WIND CONDITIONS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAMDEN
LONG TERM...CAMDEN
AVIATION...MELTO
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