588  
FXUS63 KSGF 080525  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
1225 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-55%) THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND WINDS UP  
TO 50-60 MPH IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST PULSE STORMS.  
 
- MORE ORGANIZED CHANCES (50-65%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ON TUESDAY BEGINNING EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. THERE  
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,  
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH IN ADDITION TO  
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.  
 
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (30-50%) PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK  
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHEST CHANCES OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENINGS.  
 
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:  
 
FLOW REMAINS QUASI-ZONAL TO OUR NORTH IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WITH  
THE OZARKS PLACED BETWEEN TWO TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES PULSING OFF  
THE PARENT FLOW TO THE NORTH. A WEAK TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY  
HAS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI, WHICH IS COLLOCATED ALONG  
THE EDGE OF A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT. WE ARE ALSO SITTING  
ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE  
FOCUSED OVER THE MID-SOUTH.  
 
STORMS CHANCES/MODE THIS AFTERNOON:  
 
BROAD 20-50% POPS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHEST (30-55%) CHANCES  
FURTHEST SOUTH NEAR THE AR/MO STATE LINE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN  
WHERE RAIN WILL DEVELOP IS LOW, BUT SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL BE  
STRONGEST FURTHEST SOUTH ALONG THE EDGE OF THE HIGH-PRESSURE  
RIDGE, WITH SECONDARY FORCING ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE NORTH.  
 
MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE PULSE TO PULSE CLUSTERS, WITH QUESTIONS  
ABOUT COVERAGE CONTRIBUTING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES  
AT A SINGLE POINT LOCATION. HOWEVER, FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN  
OCCURRENCE OF PULSE STORMS SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA THIS  
AFTERNOON IS HIGH.  
 
STORM HAZARDS:  
 
THE PULSE-Y NATURE OF THE STORMS WILL MAKE MARGINALLY SEVERE DAMAGING  
WINDS 45-60 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH COLLAPSING STORMS THE PRIMARY  
SEVERE HAZARD. DCAPE AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG AND THETA-E  
DIFFERENCES >25 K PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT RIPE FOR WET  
MICROBURSTS IN STORMS THAT DEVELOP ROBUST UPDRAFTS.  
 
HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT ALSO REMAINS VERY MOIST, AND WITHIN A  
WEAK SHEAR REGIME WITH PW VALUES 1.8-2", THESE PULSE STORMS  
WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. LOCALIZED RAINFALL  
RATES 1.5-2.5" PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE STORMS.  
ADDITIONALLY, BEHAVIOR WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY  
(SLOW-MOVING, POTENTIALLY SHORT PERIODS OF TRAINING OFF ITS OWN  
OUTFLOW) WHICH COULD INCREASE RESIDENCE TIME OVER A GIVEN AREA  
AND ELEVATE RATE-DRIVEN FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN  
URBAN AREAS. RECENT HRRR RUNS AND 12Z HREF LPMMS INDICATE THAT  
SMALL POCKETS OF 3-5" WILL BE IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR  
THE STRONGEST AND LONGEST-LASTING STORMS.  
 
EARLY AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS 0-3KM CAPE >75 J/KG AND  
A WEAK THERMAL RIDGE APPROACHING THE BOUNDARY, SO BRIEF FUNNELS  
OR MAYBE A LANDSPOUT COULD BE SIGHTED, ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH  
ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAINLY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
TUESDAY:  
 
SOME MODELS/12Z HREF MEMBERS KEEP CONVECTION LINGERING THROUGH  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT  
LINGERING CONVECTION WON'T MAKE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE  
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF CONVECTION LATER IN THE DAY, WITH MORE THAN  
ENOUGH INSTABILITY (>3000 J/KG SBCAPE) AND INCREASING SHEAR  
SUPPORTING MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AS  
OPPOSED TO PULSERS AS ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES  
THROUGH THE AREA. LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SEES AN  
INCREASE TO 35-60% POPS, WHICH REMAIN INTO THE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF STORMS BRINGS AN INCREASED CHANCE  
OF WIDESPREAD MCS-DRIVEN DAMAGING WINDS, WITH WINDS 50-65 MPH  
POSSIBLE. EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES KEEP ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD  
CONCERNS IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD  
CONVECTION. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST  
PORTIONS OF THE ORGANIZED MCS STAYS TO OUR WEST IN  
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA, BUT WITH FAVORABLE THERMOS ESPECIALLY IN OUR  
WESTERN COUNTIES, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE SPC SLIGHT  
RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE STORMS BE EXTENDED SLIGHTLY INTO OUR  
WESTERN COUNTIES.  
 
WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY:  
 
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE THAT DISRUPTS OUR EARLY WEEK ZONAL  
FLOW PATTERN MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST, WITH THE  
PASSAGE OF A 925/850MB FRONT ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE MCS  
BRINGING SOME DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP MITIGATE  
AFTERNOON PRECIP CHANCES, ESPECIALLY FURTHEST NORTHWEST, WITH  
AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I-44 LIKELY TO STAY DRY WEDNESDAY  
(<25% CHANCES). NBM QPF FOOTPRINTS SUGGEST MOST AREAS STAY DRY  
AND THE EASTERN OZARKS MAYBE SEEING A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES  
WEDNESDAY EVENING.  
 
A SHORTWAVE EJECTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AGAIN THURSDAY  
BEFORE A STRONGER LARGE-SCALE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
CONUS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTH INTO  
THE WEEKEND, KEEPING 20-35% POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS  
16Z LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN  
COVERAGE HAS DECREASED, SO CONTINUED THE PROB30 GROUPS IN THE  
TAFS FOR NOW. ANY STRONGER STORM THAT IMPACTS THE TERMINALS  
WOULD LOWER VISIBILITIES FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AND BRING CHANGING  
WIND CONDITIONS.  
 
 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...CAMDEN  
LONG TERM...CAMDEN  
AVIATION...MELTO  
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