087  
FXUS63 KSGF 081053  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
553 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- CHANCES (50-65%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING  
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A  
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS  
OF 50 TO 60 MPH IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.  
 
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (30-50%) PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK  
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHEST CHANCES OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENINGS.  
 
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS,  
CREATING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION, WITH A SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST JUST WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES. A  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY BISECTING CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST  
MISSOURI, WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE. SOME  
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE  
AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, HOWEVER THEY HAVE SINCE  
DIMINISHED. FURTHER NORTH OVER NORTHWEST MO, AN MCS HAS BEEN  
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN  
BEFORE REACHING THE CWA, THIS WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN FURTHER  
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND A MOIST AIRMASS  
(DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S) WILL LEAD TO STRONG  
DESTABILIZATION LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH >2500-3000  
J/KG MUCAPE AND MARGINAL SHEAR (~20-25KT BULK SHEAR). WITH UPPER  
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, ENOUGH FORCING AND INSTABILITY  
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MULTICELL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS (30-60% POPS). SPC DAY 1 SEVERE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO  
HIGHLIGHT A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5) FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY TO  
ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE MCS-DRIVEN DAMAGING  
WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH, WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL (PWATS  
RANGE BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES) LEADING TO A LOCAL FLASH  
FLOODING THREAT AS WELL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH  
THROUGH THE EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING DIMINISHES.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WE  
PROGRESS INTO MID TO LATE WEEK, THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL SUPPORT  
DAILY RAIN CHANCES. FOR WEDNESDAY, MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF  
THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY, WITH A 25-45% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN  
SOUTHEAST OF I-44 IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THURSDAY WILL OFFER THE  
LOWEST RAIN CHANCES (<20%), WITH HIGHER CHANCES (20-55%) FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. ALL DAY WASHOUTS AREN'T EXPECTED,  
HOWEVER WHERE RAIN DOES OCCUR, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE  
POSSIBLE. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, WITH DAILY HIGHS IN  
THE MID/UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW  
70S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE (30-55%) AS EARLY AS  
16Z THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PROB30 GROUPS HAVE CONTINUED FOR ALL  
THREE TERMINALS AS CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE REMAINS LOWER. ANY  
STRONGER STORM THAT IMPACTS THE TERMINALS WOULD LOWER  
VISIBILITIES FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AND BRING CHANGING WIND  
CONDITIONS.  
 
 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...MELTO  
LONG TERM...MELTO  
AVIATION...MELTO  
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