459
FXUS63 KSGF 090457
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES (20-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. RAIN WILL BE SCATTERED WITH SOME SEEING NO RAIN
AT ALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH IN
ADDITION TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (30-60%) PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHEST CHANCES OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A
FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
THE LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM A MCS THAT DECAYED AS IT
MOVED OVER THE REGION LAST NIGHT, REMAINED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, A
MCV WAS NOTED ON RADAR IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO THE
TABLE ROCK LAKE REGION. THIS HAS ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION
INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH (PWATS BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES)
PRODUCING SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE REGION OF WESTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTY AND THE NORTH FORK RIVER BASIN AND A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING. ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CAMS INDICATED GOOD (30-60%) SCATTERED CHANCES INITIATING
AS EARLY AS 3-4PM AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THANKS TO THE REMAINING MCV COMBINED WITH LEFT OVER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE MORNING MCS, AND MID-UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
(CAPE 1700-2500 J/KG) OVER THE REGION THANKS TO THE TD'S IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE REGION. SHEAR REMAINS LIMITED
WITH BULK SHEAR AROUND 20KTS, WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE PULSE TO
MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS. OVERALL, THERE IS A MARGINAL (1 OF 5)
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING 50-60MPH DOWNBURST
WINDS. AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL REPORT UP TO QUARTERS MAY OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.
WITH ALL THAT SAID, THERE MAY BE LOCATIONS THAT SEE NO RAINFALL
AT ALL THROUGH THIS EVENING THANKS TO THE EXPECTED SCATTERED
NATURE OF THE STORMS.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH MOST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE REGION
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 80S AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT DAILY RAIN CHANCES THOUGH THE INGREDIENTS
WEDNESDAY ARE ONLY SUCH AS TO ALLOW FOR A 15-40% CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON STORMS. MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY, WITH THE BEST LIGHT RAIN CHANCES SOUTHEAST OF I-44
IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE PROGRESSED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE TAIL END OF IT MAY LINGER OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
THURSDAY WILL OFFER THE LOWEST RAIN CHANCES (<20%), WITH HIGHER
CHANCES (20-55%) FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERALL, THE
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DAILY RAIN CHANCES, THOUGH ALL DAY
WASHOUTS AREN'T EXPECTED, HOWEVER WHERE RAIN DOES OCCUR,
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S, AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE
FORECAST CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL
THREE TERMINALS, LOWERING FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR STATUS.
ONCE THIS FOG DISSIPATES NEAR SUNRISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...MELTO
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