459  
FXUS63 KSGF 090457  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- CHANCES (20-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING. RAIN WILL BE SCATTERED WITH SOME SEEING NO RAIN  
AT ALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH IN  
ADDITION TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.  
 
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (30-60%) PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK  
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHEST CHANCES OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENINGS.  
 
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A  
FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
THE LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM A MCS THAT DECAYED AS IT  
MOVED OVER THE REGION LAST NIGHT, REMAINED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN  
MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, A  
MCV WAS NOTED ON RADAR IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO THE  
TABLE ROCK LAKE REGION. THIS HAS ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION  
INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH (PWATS BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES)  
PRODUCING SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE REGION OF WESTERN  
DOUGLAS COUNTY AND THE NORTH FORK RIVER BASIN AND A FLASH FLOOD  
WARNING. ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
 
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON  
WITH CAMS INDICATED GOOD (30-60%) SCATTERED CHANCES INITIATING  
AS EARLY AS 3-4PM AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE THANKS TO THE REMAINING MCV COMBINED WITH LEFT OVER  
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE MORNING MCS, AND MID-UPPER LEVEL  
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE  
(CAPE 1700-2500 J/KG) OVER THE REGION THANKS TO THE TD'S IN THE  
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE REGION. SHEAR REMAINS LIMITED  
WITH BULK SHEAR AROUND 20KTS, WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE PULSE TO  
MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS. OVERALL, THERE IS A MARGINAL (1 OF 5)  
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON INTO  
THIS EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING 50-60MPH DOWNBURST  
WINDS. AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL REPORT UP TO QUARTERS MAY OCCUR  
WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.  
 
WITH ALL THAT SAID, THERE MAY BE LOCATIONS THAT SEE NO RAINFALL  
AT ALL THROUGH THIS EVENING THANKS TO THE EXPECTED SCATTERED  
NATURE OF THE STORMS.  
 
THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH MOST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE REGION  
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER  
60S TO LOWER 70S OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE  
TO UPPER 80S AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL PATTERN  
WILL SUPPORT DAILY RAIN CHANCES THOUGH THE INGREDIENTS  
WEDNESDAY ARE ONLY SUCH AS TO ALLOW FOR A 15-40% CHANCES OF  
AFTERNOON STORMS. MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA WILL  
REMAIN DRY, WITH THE BEST LIGHT RAIN CHANCES SOUTHEAST OF I-44  
IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE PROGRESSED OVER THE GREAT  
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE TAIL END OF IT MAY LINGER OVER  
PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.  
THURSDAY WILL OFFER THE LOWEST RAIN CHANCES (<20%), WITH HIGHER  
CHANCES (20-55%) FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERALL, THE  
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DAILY RAIN CHANCES, THOUGH ALL DAY  
WASHOUTS AREN'T EXPECTED, HOWEVER WHERE RAIN DOES OCCUR,  
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. NEAR-NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S  
TO LOW 90S, AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.  
 
A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE  
THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY. THIS WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A  
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE  
FORECAST CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL  
THREE TERMINALS, LOWERING FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR STATUS.  
ONCE THIS FOG DISSIPATES NEAR SUNRISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD  
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE, LIGHT  
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...HATCH  
LONG TERM...HATCH  
AVIATION...MELTO  
 
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