003  
FXUS63 KSGF 091100  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
600 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- LOW CHANCES (<15%) OF RAIN TODAY AND TOMORROW, THEN HIGHER  
RAIN CHANCES (30-60%) PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO THE  
WEEKEND. HIGHEST CHANCES OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.  
 
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A  
FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES  
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
WITH THE RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED IN SOME LOCATIONS YESTERDAY AND  
THE LIGHT WINDS EXPERIENCED OVERNIGHT, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS  
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA, WITH OBSERVATIONS INDICATING  
VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 7 MILES IN SOME LOCATIONS (AS OF 2  
AM). THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE  
EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND SUNRISE.  
OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES HAVE RANGED IN THE UPPER 60S  
TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY  
FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE  
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THAT REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT REMAINS  
A QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT OUR  
AREA, WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOWER PROBABILITIES OF  
PRECIPITATION (<15%). IF STORMS CAN PUSH SOUTHWARD ENOUGH, THEY  
WOULD POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT, PRIMARILY FOR A SMALL  
PORTION OF OUR FAR NORTHWEST CWA, WITH WINDS UP TO 50-60 MPH AS  
THE MAIN THREATS. THE MOST PROBABLE TIMING WOULD BE LATER  
TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THAT BEING SAID, THIS WOULD BE A  
CONDITIONAL THREAT (IF STORMS CAN PUSH SOUTHWARD ENOUGH), AND MOST  
OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS  
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S  
(EASTERN OZARKS) TO LOW 70S (WEST OF HIGHWAY 65).  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY AS WELL, WITH  
<15% POPS AREA-WIDE. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO  
THE UPPER 80S OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS, AND THE LOW 90S  
ELSEWHERE. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE THEN  
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON,  
BRINGING DAILY RAIN CHANCES (30-60%) THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE  
ALL DAY WASHOUTS ARE NOT EXPECTED, LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAIN WILL  
BE POSSIBLE WHEREVER RAIN DOES OCCUR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD  
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S ON FRIDAY, AND THE MID TO UPPER 80S  
OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE ACTIVE PATTERN  
LOOKS TO CONTINUE, WITH MODELS SHOWING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE  
TROUGHS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING DAILY RAIN CHANCES  
(30-50%).  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
PATCHY FOG IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS  
SHOULD PRIMARILY AFFECT KBBG, WHICH HAS EXPERIENCED MVFR TO  
IFR AND LOWER VISIBILITIES PERIODICALLY THROUGHOUT THE EARLY  
MORNING. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE (~13-14Z), WITH VFR  
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE, LIGHT  
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED.  
 
 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...MELTO  
LONG TERM...MELTO  
AVIATION...MELTO  
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