003
FXUS63 KSGF 091100
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCES (<15%) OF RAIN TODAY AND TOMORROW, THEN HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES (30-60%) PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGHEST CHANCES OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A
FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
WITH THE RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED IN SOME LOCATIONS YESTERDAY AND
THE LIGHT WINDS EXPERIENCED OVERNIGHT, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA, WITH OBSERVATIONS INDICATING
VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 7 MILES IN SOME LOCATIONS (AS OF 2
AM). THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES HAVE RANGED IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THAT REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT REMAINS
A QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT OUR
AREA, WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOWER PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION (<15%). IF STORMS CAN PUSH SOUTHWARD ENOUGH, THEY
WOULD POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT, PRIMARILY FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF OUR FAR NORTHWEST CWA, WITH WINDS UP TO 50-60 MPH AS
THE MAIN THREATS. THE MOST PROBABLE TIMING WOULD BE LATER
TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THAT BEING SAID, THIS WOULD BE A
CONDITIONAL THREAT (IF STORMS CAN PUSH SOUTHWARD ENOUGH), AND MOST
OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S
(EASTERN OZARKS) TO LOW 70S (WEST OF HIGHWAY 65).
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY AS WELL, WITH
<15% POPS AREA-WIDE. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS, AND THE LOW 90S
ELSEWHERE. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE THEN
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
BRINGING DAILY RAIN CHANCES (30-60%) THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE
ALL DAY WASHOUTS ARE NOT EXPECTED, LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE WHEREVER RAIN DOES OCCUR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S ON FRIDAY, AND THE MID TO UPPER 80S
OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE ACTIVE PATTERN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE, WITH MODELS SHOWING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING DAILY RAIN CHANCES
(30-50%).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
PATCHY FOG IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD PRIMARILY AFFECT KBBG, WHICH HAS EXPERIENCED MVFR TO
IFR AND LOWER VISIBILITIES PERIODICALLY THROUGHOUT THE EARLY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE (~13-14Z), WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...MELTO
AVIATION...MELTO
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