656  
FXUS63 KSGF 092346  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
646 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- LOW CHANCES (<10-15%) OF RAIN TODAY AND TOMORROW, THEN HIGHER  
RAIN CHANCES (30-60%) CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO THE  
WEEKEND. HIGHEST CHANCES OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.  
 
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A  
FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES  
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WAS ALLOWING FOR A RATHER  
NICE DAY. DEWPOINTS WERE STILL IN THE UPPER 60'S TO LOWER 70'S  
ACROSS THE OZARKS, BUT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ACROSS THE  
AREA. THOUGH THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO THE AIRMASS OVER  
THE REGION, THERE IS NO GOOD FORCING MECHANISM TO GET ANY  
SHOWERS OR STORMS GOING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO  
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WHICH MAY  
PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEST AND NORTH OF  
THE OZARKS. LATEST MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY  
CONTINUES THE QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THESE STORMS WILL  
IMPACT OUR AREA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST RATHER LOW  
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION (<10%).  
 
EXPECTATION THEREFORE IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THIS  
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IF STORMS FORM IN THE PLAINS AND IF A  
STORM CAN PUSH SOUTHWARD ENOUGH THEY MAY POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE  
THREAT, THOUGH THE LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY FOR THIS TO OCCUR  
WOULD BE FOR A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHWESTERN BOURBON COUNTY  
KANSAS AND POINTS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. IF A STORM CAN MAKE IT  
THAT FAR, THE MAIN CONCERNS WOULD BE FOR WINDS UP TO 50-60 MPH  
AS THE MAIN THREATS. THE MOST PROBABLE TIMING WOULD BE LATER  
TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THAT BEING SAID, THIS WOULD BE A  
CONDITIONAL THREAT (IF STORMS CAN PUSH SOUTHWARD ENOUGH), WITH  
MOST OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.  
 
THURSDAYS PATTERN LOOKS REMARKABLE SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY'S.  
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S OVER  
THE EASTERN OZARKS, AND THE LOW 90S ELSEWHERE. A RATHER WEAK  
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH <10-15% POPS AREA-  
WIDE. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S  
OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS, AND THE LOW 90S ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE,  
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER WARM SUMMER DAY WITH LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE WINDS.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
THE OVERALL PATTERN DOES BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF CHANGE AS WE  
HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. SURFACE  
FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY, ALLOWING FOR MORE MOISTURE  
TO RETURN TO THE REGION. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS  
ARE FORECAST BY MODELS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AS EARLY AS  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON  
(30-60%) SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. THE DAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE  
A WASHOUT, BUT LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEREVER  
RAIN DOES OCCUR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S  
ON FRIDAY, AND THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 
SOME LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY, THANKS TO THE INCREASED DEWPOINTS AND  
TEMPERATURES, MAY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND THE 100  
DEGREE MARK FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
THE OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING  
FOR DAILY, MAINLY AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES (30-60%) THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
AN ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL LAST INTO NEXT WEEK,  
WITH MODELS SHOWING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PUSHING THROUGH  
THE REGION, BRINGING DAILY RAIN CHANCES (30-50%).  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF  
PERIOD.  
 
 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...HATCH  
LONG TERM...HATCH  
AVIATION...TITUS  
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