656
FXUS63 KSGF 092346
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
646 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCES (<10-15%) OF RAIN TODAY AND TOMORROW, THEN HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES (30-60%) CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGHEST CHANCES OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A
FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WAS ALLOWING FOR A RATHER
NICE DAY. DEWPOINTS WERE STILL IN THE UPPER 60'S TO LOWER 70'S
ACROSS THE OZARKS, BUT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
AREA. THOUGH THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO THE AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION, THERE IS NO GOOD FORCING MECHANISM TO GET ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS GOING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WHICH MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEST AND NORTH OF
THE OZARKS. LATEST MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES THE QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THESE STORMS WILL
IMPACT OUR AREA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST RATHER LOW
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION (<10%).
EXPECTATION THEREFORE IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IF STORMS FORM IN THE PLAINS AND IF A
STORM CAN PUSH SOUTHWARD ENOUGH THEY MAY POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT, THOUGH THE LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY FOR THIS TO OCCUR
WOULD BE FOR A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHWESTERN BOURBON COUNTY
KANSAS AND POINTS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. IF A STORM CAN MAKE IT
THAT FAR, THE MAIN CONCERNS WOULD BE FOR WINDS UP TO 50-60 MPH
AS THE MAIN THREATS. THE MOST PROBABLE TIMING WOULD BE LATER
TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THAT BEING SAID, THIS WOULD BE A
CONDITIONAL THREAT (IF STORMS CAN PUSH SOUTHWARD ENOUGH), WITH
MOST OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
THURSDAYS PATTERN LOOKS REMARKABLE SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY'S.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S OVER
THE EASTERN OZARKS, AND THE LOW 90S ELSEWHERE. A RATHER WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH <10-15% POPS AREA-
WIDE. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS, AND THE LOW 90S ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE,
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER WARM SUMMER DAY WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
THE OVERALL PATTERN DOES BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF CHANGE AS WE
HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. SURFACE
FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY, ALLOWING FOR MORE MOISTURE
TO RETURN TO THE REGION. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ARE FORECAST BY MODELS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
(30-60%) SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. THE DAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
A WASHOUT, BUT LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEREVER
RAIN DOES OCCUR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S
ON FRIDAY, AND THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND.
SOME LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY, THANKS TO THE INCREASED DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES, MAY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND THE 100
DEGREE MARK FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING
FOR DAILY, MAINLY AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES (30-60%) THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL LAST INTO NEXT WEEK,
WITH MODELS SHOWING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PUSHING THROUGH
THE REGION, BRINGING DAILY RAIN CHANCES (30-50%).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...TITUS
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