128  
FXUS63 KSGF 101036  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
536 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- LOW CHANCES (<10-15%) OF RAIN TODAY, THEN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES  
(30-60%) CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST CHANCES OCCUR IN  
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.  
 
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A  
FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES  
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2025  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MO LATE  
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT, WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR A PLEASANT NIGHT,  
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. SOME  
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE, PRIMARILY OVER  
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN OZARKS WHERE THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS  
YESTERDAY, HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS TO OCCUR.  
 
TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 80S (EASTERN OZARKS) TO LOW 90S (ELSEWHERE). MODELS DEPICT  
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES  
OF THUNDER, HOWEVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. KEPT POPS  
<10-15% AREA-WIDE. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR IT TO BE  
ANOTHER WARM, DRY SUMMER DAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.  
 
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE  
EASTERN OZARKS TO THE LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2025  
 
STARTING FRIDAY, WE'LL BEGIN TO SEE A PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH AT  
LEAST THE WEEKEND, WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS  
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW  
RETURNING MOISTURE TO THE REGION. AS A RESULT, DAILY CHANCES  
(30-60%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST, WITH THE  
HIGHER CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE STORM  
PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF  
HIGHWAY 60 IN A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON  
FRIDAY, WITH DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.  
ALL DAY WASHOUTS ARE NOT EXPECTED, HOWEVER SOME HEAVIER  
LOCALIZED RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE RAIN DOES OCCUR.  
 
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO THE LOW 90S  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH INCREASED DEWPOINTS DUE TO THE  
MOISTURE RETURN, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO  
AROUND 100 DEGREES, PRIMARILY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
DAILY AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES (30-50%) WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH  
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES  
AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PUSH THROUGH.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF  
PERIOD, WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAINING BELOW 10KTS.  
 
 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...MELTO  
LONG TERM...MELTO  
AVIATION...MELTO  
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