005  
FXUS63 KSGF 110824  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
324 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A 40-70% FOR THUNDERSTORMS  
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL (1 OF 4) TO SLIGHT  
(2 OF 4) RISK FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IF STORMS MOVE  
OVER THE SAME LOCATION REPEATEDLY.  
 
- THERE IS ALSO A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER  
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE GREATEST THREATS BEING DAMAGING  
WIND GUSTS, UP TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
 
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE.  
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN INCOMING LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM. TODAY WILL STAY MOSTLY DRY BUT WILL BE HOT! EXPECT  
HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S ACROSS THE AREA TODAY  
WITH SUNNY SKIES. TONIGHT WILL BE WARM AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE 70S  
AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ONCE AGAIN.  
 
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS RAINY FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE STATE. THIS TROUGH WILL TAKE ITS TIME  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT STALLS OVER  
US. SPC HAS MOST OF SOUTHERN MO IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER (1/5) WITH THE MAIN RISKS BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60  
MPH AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER-SIZED. WITH WPC OUTLINING FAR SOUTHWEST  
MO IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (2/4), WE CAN EXPECT  
THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. THE  
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CONTENT (PWATS OF 1.5-2.0")  
AND IF STORMS KEEP REFORMING OFF THE BOUNDARY AND TRAIN OVER THE  
SAME AREAS, THIS COULD LEAD TO NUISANCE AND STREET FLOODING THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND. IF SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,  
BE SURE TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
 
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT WILL  
STILL BE OVER THE AREA. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER (1/5) FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH STRONG TO MARGINALLY  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. AGAIN,  
THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP HEAVY RAINFALL. THE  
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING AND THE RAIN WILL  
DISSIPATE. NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES (20-40%) WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
 
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING  
UP TO 25 KNOTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED  
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...SORIA  
LONG TERM...SORIA  
AVIATION...SORIA  
 
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