842
FXUS63 KSGF 310534
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1234 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
- THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR THE RETURN OF ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT WED JUL
30 2025
A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS SET UP ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNAL HEATING HAS ERODED ANY CAPPING,
AND SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND TO
ITS EAST. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN IOWA, WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CUTTING THROUGH
NORTHWEST MISSOURI. SPC MESOANALYSIS ALSO SUGGESTS AN 850 MB
FRONT IS APPARENT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. ALOFT, THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN PROVIDING THE LINGERING HEAT HAS
FLATTENED SOMEWHAT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHIFTING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS IMPULSE HAS PROVIDED LIFT FOR GREATER
STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
HI-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
THOUGH IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW DISTINGUISHABLE THESE ROUNDS
WILL BE. THE OZARK PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INDEX IS DEPICTING
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR SEVERE PULSE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
AND WITH 0-3 KM THETA-E DIFFERENCES AROUND 30 DEG C, DOWNBURST
WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAIN, AND ISOLATED HAIL TO QUARTERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED HAZARDS. CAMS SHOW ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION
FIRING ALONG THE 850 MB FRONT AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEAGER
SHEAR BUT PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THEN, THE TRUE
COLD FRONT LOOKS PUSH THROUGH ON THURSDAY, AIDING IN CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH IT. RAP OUTPUT SUGGESTS
LESS INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY, SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH THAT ACTIVITY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON THURSDAY, WITH MANY LOCATIONS
FORECAST TO BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY. THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AND MAY
EVEN STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 70S, WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR THE
MO/AR BORDER ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S. WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY, WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT LOCALIZED
AREAS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI GETTING CLOSE TO A 100
DEGREE HEAT INDEX ONCE AGAIN, BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE
EXACT TIMING/POSITIONING OF THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION, THERE
IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE HEAT ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE RETREATED TO THE WEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE
ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON
BUILDING THE RIDGE BACK TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHIFT WILL AT LEAST OPEN THE DOOR
TO MCS REMNANTS ENTERING SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI, BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANY DETAILS REMAIN LOW AT THIS
POINT. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PUSHING EAST ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST INTO
WESTERN MISSOURI WHERE IT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN. JUST HOW FAR
WEST INTO MO IT MAKES IT INTO MISSOURI IS THE QUESTION BEFORE
WEAKENING AND MOVING MORE SOUTH. THE KJLN TAF SITE WILL HAVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT.
A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATE AND JUST BEYOND THIS
TAF PERIOD BUT THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE AREA.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...WISE
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